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CSEW cap masks true levels of violent crime

Press/Media: Research

Description

A cap on the number of violent offences attributed to one individual by the biggest victimisation survey in England and Wales means the true number of violent crimes, particularly against women, is much higher than previously thought.

Research conducted by Professor Slyvia Walby, Dr Jude Towers and Brian Francis, from Lancaster University has found that official data that makes up the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) – published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) – caps the maximum number of incidents per person at five.

So if the victim reported six, 10 or 13 crimes when questioned for the CSEW, these are entered in the official statistics as five, meaning further recorded incidents are not included in official estimates.

When the cap is removed, the number of violent crimes increases by 60 per cent, the amount of violent crime against women increases by 70 per cent and the amount of violent crime by domestic perpetrators also increases by 70 per cent.

Professor Walby’s research concluded that removing the cap on high numbers of repeated crimes shows there is not only more violent crime, but that this is unevenly distributed towards women and those victimised by domestic relations and acquaintances.

Professor Walby argues that, while it was right to implement the cap at the time, it should have been discontinued as more modern statistical techniques were discovered.

She says it is “unacceptable” that the ONS believes the appropriate solution to this issue is to exclude the incidents where a victim has been abused more than five times because the experience of repeated abuse is “too important to be treated in this way”.

Speaking to Police Professional, John Flatley, head of the crime statistics and analysis team at the ONS said while it is the case that the current approach risks understating the volume of domestic incidents suffered by women, it is a “complex statistical issue”, and that the cap has been in place since the survey started in 1981 and is a common feature of other victimisation surveys across the world.

“The reason such caps are applied is because such surveys are based on interviewing a random sample of the population,” he said.

“For most crime types, the cap has no material impact as few victims of crime experience more than five repeats in the same year. However, some victims of domestic violence can suffer very high levels of repeat victimisation.

“For example one survey might have three victims of domestic abuse in one year saying they suffered daily – which when weighted up could equate to a million crimes. Then the next year, you might not have any such victims in the sample which would mean a fall of a similar level. Which wouldn't be very helpful in informing trends in crime.”

He confirmed that the ONS is open to reviewing the current approach and has begun researching the issue.

Analysis is expected to be complete by autumn and the ONS will then look at alternative options including removing the cap completely and is expecting to consult with users of its statistics in early 2016         

Period12/06/2015

A cap on the number of violent offences attributed to one individual by the biggest victimisation survey in England and Wales means the true number of violent crimes, particularly against women, is much higher than previously thought.

Research conducted by Professor Slyvia Walby, Dr Jude Towers and Brian Francis, from Lancaster University has found that official data that makes up the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) – published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) – caps the maximum number of incidents per person at five.

So if the victim reported six, 10 or 13 crimes when questioned for the CSEW, these are entered in the official statistics as five, meaning further recorded incidents are not included in official estimates.

When the cap is removed, the number of violent crimes increases by 60 per cent, the amount of violent crime against women increases by 70 per cent and the amount of violent crime by domestic perpetrators also increases by 70 per cent.

Professor Walby’s research concluded that removing the cap on high numbers of repeated crimes shows there is not only more violent crime, but that this is unevenly distributed towards women and those victimised by domestic relations and acquaintances.

Professor Walby argues that, while it was right to implement the cap at the time, it should have been discontinued as more modern statistical techniques were discovered.

She says it is “unacceptable” that the ONS believes the appropriate solution to this issue is to exclude the incidents where a victim has been abused more than five times because the experience of repeated abuse is “too important to be treated in this way”.

Speaking to Police Professional, John Flatley, head of the crime statistics and analysis team at the ONS said while it is the case that the current approach risks understating the volume of domestic incidents suffered by women, it is a “complex statistical issue”, and that the cap has been in place since the survey started in 1981 and is a common feature of other victimisation surveys across the world.

“The reason such caps are applied is because such surveys are based on interviewing a random sample of the population,” he said.

“For most crime types, the cap has no material impact as few victims of crime experience more than five repeats in the same year. However, some victims of domestic violence can suffer very high levels of repeat victimisation.

“For example one survey might have three victims of domestic abuse in one year saying they suffered daily – which when weighted up could equate to a million crimes. Then the next year, you might not have any such victims in the sample which would mean a fall of a similar level. Which wouldn't be very helpful in informing trends in crime.”

He confirmed that the ONS is open to reviewing the current approach and has begun researching the issue.

Analysis is expected to be complete by autumn and the ONS will then look at alternative options including removing the cap completely and is expecting to consult with users of its statistics in early 2016         

References

TitleCSEW cap masks true levels of violent crime
Media name/outletPolice Professional
Date12/06/15
Producer/AuthorChris Allen
PersonsSylvia Walby, Jude Towers, Brian Francis