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Research

Professor Jonathan Tawn

Distinguished Professor of Statistics

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  1. 2024
  2. Forthcoming

    Inference for extreme spatial temperature events in a changing climate with application to Ireland

    Healy, D., Tawn, J., Thorne, P. & Parnell, A., 9/02/2024, (Accepted/In press) In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics).

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  3. Published

    Modelling non-stationary flood frequency in England andWales using physical covariates

    Faulkner, D. S., Longfield, S., Warren, S. & Tawn, J. A., 1/02/2024, In: Hydrology Research. 55, 2, p. 205-220 16 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  4. Forthcoming

    Inference for new environmental contours using extreme value analysis

    Simpson, E. & Tawn, J., 23/01/2024, (Accepted/In press) In: Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  5. Published

    Some benefits of standardisation for conditional extremes

    Rohrbeck, C. & Tawn, J., 14/01/2024, In: Stat. 13, 1, e647.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  6. 2023
  7. Forthcoming

    Modelling non-stationary flood frequency in England and Wales using physical covariates

    Faulkner, D., Longfield, S., Warren, S. & Tawn, J., 21/12/2023, (Accepted/In press) In: Hydrology Research.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  8. E-pub ahead of print

    Temporal evolution of the extreme excursions of multivariate k $$ k $$ th order Markov processes with application to oceanographic data

    Tendijck, S., Tawn, J., Randell, D. & Jonathan, P., 3/12/2023, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Environmetrics.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  9. Published

    Modeling Intransitivity in Pairwise Comparisons with Application to Baseball Data

    Spearing, H., Tawn, J., Irons, D. & Paulden, T., 2/10/2023, In: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics. 32, 4, p. 1383-1392 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  10. Published

    Modeling the Extremes of Bivariate Mixture Distributions With Application to Oceanographic Data

    Tendijck, S., Eastoe, E., Tawn, J., Randell, D. & Jonathan, P., 30/06/2023, In: Journal of the American Statistical Association. 118, 542, p. 1373-1384 12 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  11. Forthcoming

    Accouting for seasonality in extreme sea level estimation

    D'Arcy, E., Tawn, J., Joly, A. & Sifnioti, D., 22/04/2023, (Accepted/In press) In: Annals of Applied Statistics.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  12. Published

    Extremal characteristics of conditional models

    Tendijck, S., Tawn, J. & Jonathan, P., 31/03/2023, In: Extremes. 26, 1, p. 139-156 18 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  13. Published

    Joint Estimation of Extreme Spatially Aggregated Precipitation at Different Scales through Mixture Modelling

    Richards, J., Tawn, J. & Brown, S., 31/03/2023, In: Spatial Statistics. 53, 21 p., 100725.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  14. E-pub ahead of print

    Modelling intransitivity in pairwise comparisons with application to baseball data

    Spearing, H., Tawn, J., Irons, D. & Paulden, T., 23/03/2023, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics. 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  15. 2022
  16. Published

    MODELLING EXTREMES OF SPATIAL AGGREGATES OF PRECIPITATION USING CONDITIONAL METHODS

    Richards, J., Tawn, J. & Brown, S., 31/12/2022, In: Annals of Applied Statistics. 16, 4, p. 2693-2713 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  17. Published

    On the Tail Behaviour of Aggregated Random Variables

    Richards, J. & Tawn, J., 30/11/2022, In: Journal of Multivariate Analysis. 192, 16 p., 105065.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  18. E-pub ahead of print

    Limit theory and robust evaluation methods for the extremal properties of GARCH(p, q) processes

    Laurini, F., Fearnhead, P. & Tawn, J., 1/11/2022, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Statistics and Computing. 32, 6

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  19. Published

    Accounting for Climate Change in Extreme Sea Level Estimation

    D'Arcy, E., Tawn, J. & Sifnioti, D., 21/09/2022, In: Water.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  20. E-pub ahead of print

    Higher-dimensional spatial extremes via single-site conditioning

    Wadsworth, J. & Tawn, J., 30/06/2022, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Spatial Statistics. 51, 31 p., 100677.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  21. 2021
  22. Published

    Sub-asymptotic motivation for new conditional multivariate extreme models

    Lugrin, T., Tawn, J. & Davison, A., 31/12/2021, In: Stat. 10, 1, e401.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  23. Published

    A geometric investigation into the tail dependence of vine copulas

    Simpson, E., Wadsworth, J. & Tawn, J., 1/07/2021, In: Journal of Multivariate Analysis. 184, 21 p., 104736.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  24. Published

    Basin-wide spatial conditional extremes for severe ocean storms

    Shooter, R., Tawn, J., Ross, E. & Jonathan, P., 30/06/2021, In: Extremes. 24, 2, p. 241-265 25 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  25. Published

    Bayesian spatial clustering of extremal behaviour for hydrological variables

    Rohrbeck, C. & Tawn, J., 31/03/2021, In: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics. 30, 1, p. 91-105 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  26. Published

    Ranking, and other properties, of elite swimmers using extreme value theory

    Spearing, H., Tawn, J., Paulden, T., Irons, D. & Bennett, G., 1/01/2021, In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society. 184, 1, p. 368-395 28 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  27. 2020
  28. Published

    Determining the dependence structure of multivariate extremes

    Simpson, E., Wadsworth, J. & Tawn, J., 1/09/2020, In: Biometrika. 107, 3, p. 513-532 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  29. Published

    Inference for extreme values under threshold-based stopping rules

    Barlow, A., Sherlock, C. & Tawn, J., 1/08/2020, In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics). 69, 4, p. 765-789 25 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  30. E-pub ahead of print

    Bayesian Spatial Clustering of Extremal Behavior for Hydrological Variables

    Rohrbeck, C. & Tawn, J. A., 9/07/2020, (E-pub ahead of print) In: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  31. Published

    Modelling the spatial extent and severity of extreme European windstorms

    Sharkey, P., Tawn, J. & Brown, S., 1/04/2020, In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics). 69, 2, p. 223-250 28 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  32. Published

    Modelling the clustering of extreme events for short-term risk assessment

    Towe, R., Tawn, J., Eastoe, E. & Lamb, R., 31/03/2020, In: Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics. 25, 1, p. 32-53 22 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  33. 2019
  34. Published

    Model-based inference of conditional extreme value distributions with hydrological applications

    Towe, R. P., Tawn, J. A., Lamb, R. & Sherlock, C. G., 1/12/2019, In: Environmetrics. 30, 8, 20 p., e2575.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  35. Published

    A step towards efficient inference for trends in UK extreme temperatures through distributional linkage between observations and climate model data

    Tawn, J. A., Gabda, D. & Brown, S., 1/09/2019, In: Natural Hazards. 98, 3, p. 1135–1154 20 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  36. Published

    On spatial conditional extremes for ocean storm severity

    Shooter, R., Tawn, J. A., Jonathan, P. & Ross, E., 1/09/2019, In: Environmetrics. 30, 6, 18 p., e2562.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  37. Published

    Evaluation of extremal properties of GARCH(p,q) processes

    Laurini, F., Fearnhead, P. & Tawn, J. A., 19/08/2019, In: arxiv.org.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article

  38. 2018
  39. Published

    Modelling spatial extreme events with environmental applications

    Tawn, J. A., Shooter, R., Towe, R. P. & Lamb, R., 12/2018, In: Spatial Statistics. 28, p. 39-58 20 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  40. Published

    Why extreme floods are more common than you might think

    Towe, R. P., Tawn, J. A. & Lamb, R., 12/2018, In: Significance. 15, 6, p. 16-21 6 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  41. Published

    Extreme value modelling of water-related insurance claims

    Rohrbeck, C., Eastoe, E. F., Frigessi, A. & Tawn, J. A., 1/03/2018, In: Annals of Applied Statistics. 12, 1, p. 246-282 37 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  42. 2017
  43. Published

    Spatial joint probability for flood and coastal risk management and strategic assessments: Method report - SC140002/R1

    Lamb, R. & Tawn, J. A., 30/09/2017, R1 ed. Bristol: Environment Agency. 70 p.

    Research output: Book/Report/Proceedings › Commissioned report

  44. Published

    Statistical downscaling for future extreme wave heights in the North Sea

    Towe, R. P., Eastoe, E. F., Tawn, J. A. & Jonathan, P., 1/09/2017, In: Annals of Applied Statistics. 11, 4, p. 2375–2403 33 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  45. Published

    A Poisson process reparameterisation for Bayesian inference for extremes

    Sharkey, P. & Tawn, J. A., 06/2017, In: Extremes. 20, 2, p. 239-263 25 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  46. Published

    kth-order Markov extremal models for assessing heatwave risks

    Winter, H. & Tawn, J. A., 06/2017, In: Extremes. 20, 2, p. 393-415 23 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  47. Published

    Inference for an extreme value model accounting for inter-site dependence

    Gabd, D. & Tawn, J., 27/04/2017, 4th International Conference on Mathematical Sciences - Mathematical Sciences: Championing the Way in a Problem Based and Data Driven Society, ICMS 2016. Dzul-Kifli, S. C., Zamzuri, Z. H., Razak, F. A. & Zin, W. Z. W. (eds.). American Institute of Physics Inc., 080001. (AIP Conference Proceedings; vol. 1830).

    Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

  48. Published

    Extreme events of Markov Chains

    Papastathopoulos, I., Strokorb, K., Tawn, J. A. & Butler, A., 03/2017, In: Advances in Applied Probability. 49, 1, p. 134-161 18 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  49. Published

    Properties of extremal dependence models built on bivariate max-linearity

    Kereszturi, M. & Tawn, J., 03/2017, In: Journal of Multivariate Analysis. 155, p. 52-71 20 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  50. Published

    Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change

    Winter, H., Brown, S. & Tawn, J. A., 17/01/2017, In: Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System. 1, 1, 17 p., dzw006.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  51. Published

    Modelling across extremal dependence classes

    Wadsworth, J., Tawn, J. A., Davison, A. & Elton, D. M., 01/2017, In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology). 79, 1, p. 149-175 27 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  52. 2016
  53. Published

    Modelling the effect of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on extreme spatial temperature events over Australia

    Winter, H., Tawn, J. A. & Brown, S., 1/12/2016, In: Annals of Applied Statistics. 10, 4, p. 2075-2101 27 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  54. Published

    Development of large scale inland flood scenarios for disaster response planning based on spatial/temporal conditional probability analysis

    Wood, E., Lamb, R., Warren, S., Hunter, N., Tawn, J., Allan, R. & Laeger, S., 20/10/2016, In: E3S Web of Conferences. 7, 6 p., 01003.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  55. Published

    Improving statistical models for flood risk assessment

    Towe, R., Tawn, J., Lamb, R., Sherlock, C. & Liu, Y., 20/10/2016, In: E3S Web of Conferences. 7, 12 p., 01011.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  56. Published

    Bayesian uncertainty management in temporal dependence of extremes

    Lugrin, T., Davison, A. C. & Tawn, J. A., 09/2016, In: Extremes. 19, 3, p. 491-515 25 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  57. Published

    Conditioned limit laws for inverted max-stable processes

    Papastathopoulos, I. & Tawn, J. A., 09/2016, In: Journal of Multivariate Analysis. 150, p. 214-228 15 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  58. Published

    Assessing extremal dependence of North Sea storm severity

    Kereszturi, M., Tawn, J. A. & Jonathan, P., 15/05/2016, In: Ocean Engineering. 118, p. 242-259 18 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

  59. Published

    Modelling heatwaves in central France: a case-study in extremal dependence

    Winter, H. & Tawn, J. A., 04/2016, In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics). 65, 3, p. 345-365 21 p.

    Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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