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Dr Kevin Sene

Honorary Researcher

LEC Building

LA1 4YQ

Lancaster

Research overview

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Research Interests

Hydrological models are widely used to estimate the potential impacts of climate variations on floods, droughts and water resources. There are many possible influences from both the oceans and atmosphere at a range of timescales and examples include phenomena such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Artificial influences may also play a role such as from changes in land use or operating rules.

The interactions can be complex so before launching into model development it is often useful to step back and consider the relative importance of each factor and statistical techniques provide a powerful way to do this. The methods used can range from simple analytical approaches to advanced stochastic techniques such as those developed at Lancaster Environment Centre.  

In addition to physically-based modelling, one of my interests is therefore in using these types of approach to provide insights into system response and examples of applications to date include seasonal flow forecasting and assessing long-term variability in lake levels. Linked to this is the choice of appropriate performance metrics to identify the statistical significance of any apparent changes particularly when, as is often the case, the underlying flow and rainfall records used in model calibration contain significant gaps in the early years.

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