HTTP adaptive video streaming matches video quality to the capacity of a changing context. A variety of schemes that rely on buffer state dynamics for video rate selection have been proposed. However, these schemes are predominantly based on heuristics, and appropriate models describing the relationship between video rate and buffer levels have not received sufficient attention. In this paper, we present a QoE-aware video rate evolution model based on buffer state changes. The scheme is evaluated within a real-world Internet environment. The results of an extensive evaluation show an improvement in the stability, average video rate and system utilisation, while at the same time a reduction in the start-up delay and convergence time is achieved by the modified players.