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Determining the range of predictions for calibrated agent-based simulation models

Research output: Contribution to conference - Without ISBN/ISSN Conference paper

Published
Publication date2009
Number of pages5
<mark>Original language</mark>English
EventINFORMS Simulation Society Research Workshop Simulation: At the Interface of Modeling and Analysis - Coventry, United Kingdom
Duration: 25/06/200927/06/2009

Workshop

WorkshopINFORMS Simulation Society Research Workshop Simulation: At the Interface of Modeling and Analysis
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityCoventry
Period25/06/0927/06/09

Abstract

Agent-based simulation is increasingly used to study systems
in many areas of business and science. Using agentbased
simulation for prediction could be very valuable.
However, these models usually have many parameters
which are difficult to measure directly leading to uncertainty
as to the best values to use. It is very important to
consider the alternative feasible sets of parameter values,
otherwise the modeling results could be misleading. A
method is described to take account of this when making
predictions and was applied to an agent-based word of
mouth consumer model. The result was a wide prediction
range indicating the limitations of using such a model for
predictions. The method could also be applied in other
situations.