Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - A Bayesian dose-escalation procedure for phase I clinical trials based only on the assumption of monotonicity.
AU - Whitehead, John
AU - Thygesen, Helene
AU - Whitehead, Anne
PY - 2010/7/30
Y1 - 2010/7/30
N2 - Despite an enormous and growing statistical literature, formal procedures for dose-finding are only slowly being implemented in phase I clinical trials. Even in oncology and other life-threatening conditions in which a balance between efficacy and toxicity has to be struck, model-based approaches, such as the Continual Reassessment Method, have not been universally adopted. Two related concerns have limited the adoption of the new methods. One relates to doubts about the appropriateness of models assumed to link the risk of toxicity to dose, and the other is the difficulty of communicating the nature of the process to clinical investigators responsible for early phase studies. In this paper, we adopt a new Bayesian approach involving a simple model assuming only monotonicity in the dose-toxicity relationship. The parameters that define the model have immediate and simple interpretation. The approach can be applied automatically, and we present a simulation investigation of its properties when it is. More importantly, it can be used in a transparent fashion as one element in the expert consideration of what dose to administer to the next patient or group of patients. The procedure serves to summarize the opinions and the data concerning risks of a binary characterization of toxicity which can then be considered, together with additional and less tidy trial information, by the clinicians responsible for making decisions on the allocation of doses. Graphical displays of these opinions can be used to ease communication with investigators.
AB - Despite an enormous and growing statistical literature, formal procedures for dose-finding are only slowly being implemented in phase I clinical trials. Even in oncology and other life-threatening conditions in which a balance between efficacy and toxicity has to be struck, model-based approaches, such as the Continual Reassessment Method, have not been universally adopted. Two related concerns have limited the adoption of the new methods. One relates to doubts about the appropriateness of models assumed to link the risk of toxicity to dose, and the other is the difficulty of communicating the nature of the process to clinical investigators responsible for early phase studies. In this paper, we adopt a new Bayesian approach involving a simple model assuming only monotonicity in the dose-toxicity relationship. The parameters that define the model have immediate and simple interpretation. The approach can be applied automatically, and we present a simulation investigation of its properties when it is. More importantly, it can be used in a transparent fashion as one element in the expert consideration of what dose to administer to the next patient or group of patients. The procedure serves to summarize the opinions and the data concerning risks of a binary characterization of toxicity which can then be considered, together with additional and less tidy trial information, by the clinicians responsible for making decisions on the allocation of doses. Graphical displays of these opinions can be used to ease communication with investigators.
KW - cancer clinical trials
KW - curve-free method
KW - decision procedure
KW - dose-finding
KW - phase I clinical trial
U2 - 10.1002/sim.3963
DO - 10.1002/sim.3963
M3 - Journal article
VL - 29
SP - 1808
EP - 1824
JO - Statistics in Medicine
JF - Statistics in Medicine
SN - 1097-0258
IS - 17
ER -