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A geostatistical analysis of the association between armed conflicts and P. falciparum malaria in Africa 1997-2010

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A geostatistical analysis of the association between armed conflicts and P. falciparum malaria in Africa 1997-2010. / Sedda, Luigi; Qi, Qiuyin; Tatem, Andrew J.
In: Malaria Journal, Vol. 14, 500, 16.12.2015.

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Sedda L, Qi Q, Tatem AJ. A geostatistical analysis of the association between armed conflicts and P. falciparum malaria in Africa 1997-2010. Malaria Journal. 2015 Dec 16;14:500. doi: 10.1186/s12936-015-1024-5

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@article{4f41a1f428eb4b9283903c404515dbf8,
title = "A geostatistical analysis of the association between armed conflicts and P. falciparum malaria in Africa 1997-2010",
abstract = "BackgroundThe absence of conflict in a country has been cited as a crucial factor affecting the operational feasibility of achieving malaria control and elimination, yet mixed evidence exists on the influence that conflicts have had on malaria transmission. Over the past two decades, Africa has seen substantial numbers of armed conflicts of varying length and scale, creating conditions that can disrupt control efforts and impact malaria transmission. However, very few studies have quantitatively assessed the associations between conflicts and malaria transmission, particularly in a consistent way across multiple countries.MethodsIn this analysis an explicit geostatistical, autoregressive, mixed model is employed to quantitatively assess the association between conflicts and variations in Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence across a 13-year period in sub-Saharan Africa.ResultsAnalyses of geolocated, malaria prevalence survey variations against armed conflict data in general showed a wide, but short-lived impact of conflict events geographically. The number of countries with decreased P. falciparum parasite prevalence (17) is larger than the number of countries with increased transmission (12), and notably, some of the countries with the highest transmission pre-conflict were still found with lower transmission post-conflict. For four countries, there were no significant changes in parasite prevalence. Finally, distance from conflicts, duration of conflicts, violence of conflict, and number of conflicts were significant components in the model explaining the changes in P. falciparum parasite rate.ConclusionsThe results suggest that the maintenance of intervention coverage and provision of healthcare in conflict situations to protect vulnerable populations can maintain gains in even the most difficult of circumstances, and that conflict does not represent a substantial barrier to elimination goals.",
keywords = "Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate 2–10, Conflict density, Violence, Variogram, Malaria control",
author = "Luigi Sedda and Qiuyin Qi and Tatem, {Andrew J.}",
note = "{\textcopyright} 2015 Sedda et al. Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.",
year = "2015",
month = dec,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1186/s12936-015-1024-5",
language = "English",
volume = "14",
journal = "Malaria Journal",
issn = "1475-2875",
publisher = "BioMed Central",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A geostatistical analysis of the association between armed conflicts and P. falciparum malaria in Africa 1997-2010

AU - Sedda, Luigi

AU - Qi, Qiuyin

AU - Tatem, Andrew J.

N1 - © 2015 Sedda et al. Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

PY - 2015/12/16

Y1 - 2015/12/16

N2 - BackgroundThe absence of conflict in a country has been cited as a crucial factor affecting the operational feasibility of achieving malaria control and elimination, yet mixed evidence exists on the influence that conflicts have had on malaria transmission. Over the past two decades, Africa has seen substantial numbers of armed conflicts of varying length and scale, creating conditions that can disrupt control efforts and impact malaria transmission. However, very few studies have quantitatively assessed the associations between conflicts and malaria transmission, particularly in a consistent way across multiple countries.MethodsIn this analysis an explicit geostatistical, autoregressive, mixed model is employed to quantitatively assess the association between conflicts and variations in Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence across a 13-year period in sub-Saharan Africa.ResultsAnalyses of geolocated, malaria prevalence survey variations against armed conflict data in general showed a wide, but short-lived impact of conflict events geographically. The number of countries with decreased P. falciparum parasite prevalence (17) is larger than the number of countries with increased transmission (12), and notably, some of the countries with the highest transmission pre-conflict were still found with lower transmission post-conflict. For four countries, there were no significant changes in parasite prevalence. Finally, distance from conflicts, duration of conflicts, violence of conflict, and number of conflicts were significant components in the model explaining the changes in P. falciparum parasite rate.ConclusionsThe results suggest that the maintenance of intervention coverage and provision of healthcare in conflict situations to protect vulnerable populations can maintain gains in even the most difficult of circumstances, and that conflict does not represent a substantial barrier to elimination goals.

AB - BackgroundThe absence of conflict in a country has been cited as a crucial factor affecting the operational feasibility of achieving malaria control and elimination, yet mixed evidence exists on the influence that conflicts have had on malaria transmission. Over the past two decades, Africa has seen substantial numbers of armed conflicts of varying length and scale, creating conditions that can disrupt control efforts and impact malaria transmission. However, very few studies have quantitatively assessed the associations between conflicts and malaria transmission, particularly in a consistent way across multiple countries.MethodsIn this analysis an explicit geostatistical, autoregressive, mixed model is employed to quantitatively assess the association between conflicts and variations in Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence across a 13-year period in sub-Saharan Africa.ResultsAnalyses of geolocated, malaria prevalence survey variations against armed conflict data in general showed a wide, but short-lived impact of conflict events geographically. The number of countries with decreased P. falciparum parasite prevalence (17) is larger than the number of countries with increased transmission (12), and notably, some of the countries with the highest transmission pre-conflict were still found with lower transmission post-conflict. For four countries, there were no significant changes in parasite prevalence. Finally, distance from conflicts, duration of conflicts, violence of conflict, and number of conflicts were significant components in the model explaining the changes in P. falciparum parasite rate.ConclusionsThe results suggest that the maintenance of intervention coverage and provision of healthcare in conflict situations to protect vulnerable populations can maintain gains in even the most difficult of circumstances, and that conflict does not represent a substantial barrier to elimination goals.

KW - Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate 2–10

KW - Conflict density

KW - Violence

KW - Variogram

KW - Malaria control

U2 - 10.1186/s12936-015-1024-5

DO - 10.1186/s12936-015-1024-5

M3 - Journal article

VL - 14

JO - Malaria Journal

JF - Malaria Journal

SN - 1475-2875

M1 - 500

ER -