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A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness

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A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness. / Liu, Jiayi; Francis, Brian; Soothill, Keith.
In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol. 27, No. 2, 06.2011, p. 175-196.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Liu, J, Francis, B & Soothill, K 2011, 'A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness', Journal of Quantitative Criminology, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 175-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-010-9102-x

APA

Liu, J., Francis, B., & Soothill, K. (2011). A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 27(2), 175-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-010-9102-x

Vancouver

Liu J, Francis B, Soothill K. A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness. Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 2011 Jun;27(2):175-196. doi: 10.1007/s10940-010-9102-x

Author

Liu, Jiayi ; Francis, Brian ; Soothill, Keith. / A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness. In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 2011 ; Vol. 27, No. 2. pp. 175-196.

Bibtex

@article{937bebf5f26e4dddba99fcf2964d8bdc,
title = "A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness",
abstract = "Escalation in crime seriousness over the criminal lifecourse continues to be an important issue to study in criminal careers. Quantitative research in this area has not yet been well developed owing to the difficulty of measuring crime seriousness and the complexity of escalation trajectories. In this paper we suggest that there are two types of escalation process-escalation associated with experience of the criminal justice process, and escalation associated with age and maturation. Using the 1953 birth cohort from the England and Wales Offenders Index followed up to 1999, and a recently developed seriousness scale of offenses, we constructed the individual sequences of seriousness scores from conviction to conviction. These individual sequences were then analyzed using a variety of longitudinal mixed models, with age, number of conviction occasions, sex and number of offenses used as covariates. The results suggest that ageing is associated with de-escalation whereas the number of conviction occasions are associated with escalation, with the two processes pulling in different directions. This conceptual framework helps to disentangle previously contradictory results in the escalation literature.",
keywords = "Escalation, Aggravation, Longitudinal data analysis, Mixed effects models, STATUS OFFENDERS, CRIMINAL CAREER, SPECIALIZATION, DIVERSION, VIOLENCE, MODEL",
author = "Jiayi Liu and Brian Francis and Keith Soothill",
year = "2011",
month = jun,
doi = "10.1007/s10940-010-9102-x",
language = "English",
volume = "27",
pages = "175--196",
journal = "Journal of Quantitative Criminology",
issn = "0748-4518",
publisher = "Springer New York",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness

AU - Liu, Jiayi

AU - Francis, Brian

AU - Soothill, Keith

PY - 2011/6

Y1 - 2011/6

N2 - Escalation in crime seriousness over the criminal lifecourse continues to be an important issue to study in criminal careers. Quantitative research in this area has not yet been well developed owing to the difficulty of measuring crime seriousness and the complexity of escalation trajectories. In this paper we suggest that there are two types of escalation process-escalation associated with experience of the criminal justice process, and escalation associated with age and maturation. Using the 1953 birth cohort from the England and Wales Offenders Index followed up to 1999, and a recently developed seriousness scale of offenses, we constructed the individual sequences of seriousness scores from conviction to conviction. These individual sequences were then analyzed using a variety of longitudinal mixed models, with age, number of conviction occasions, sex and number of offenses used as covariates. The results suggest that ageing is associated with de-escalation whereas the number of conviction occasions are associated with escalation, with the two processes pulling in different directions. This conceptual framework helps to disentangle previously contradictory results in the escalation literature.

AB - Escalation in crime seriousness over the criminal lifecourse continues to be an important issue to study in criminal careers. Quantitative research in this area has not yet been well developed owing to the difficulty of measuring crime seriousness and the complexity of escalation trajectories. In this paper we suggest that there are two types of escalation process-escalation associated with experience of the criminal justice process, and escalation associated with age and maturation. Using the 1953 birth cohort from the England and Wales Offenders Index followed up to 1999, and a recently developed seriousness scale of offenses, we constructed the individual sequences of seriousness scores from conviction to conviction. These individual sequences were then analyzed using a variety of longitudinal mixed models, with age, number of conviction occasions, sex and number of offenses used as covariates. The results suggest that ageing is associated with de-escalation whereas the number of conviction occasions are associated with escalation, with the two processes pulling in different directions. This conceptual framework helps to disentangle previously contradictory results in the escalation literature.

KW - Escalation

KW - Aggravation

KW - Longitudinal data analysis

KW - Mixed effects models

KW - STATUS OFFENDERS

KW - CRIMINAL CAREER

KW - SPECIALIZATION

KW - DIVERSION

KW - VIOLENCE

KW - MODEL

U2 - 10.1007/s10940-010-9102-x

DO - 10.1007/s10940-010-9102-x

M3 - Journal article

VL - 27

SP - 175

EP - 196

JO - Journal of Quantitative Criminology

JF - Journal of Quantitative Criminology

SN - 0748-4518

IS - 2

ER -