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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates
AU - Hollaway, Michael John
AU - Beven, Keith John
AU - Benskin, Clare McWilliam Haldane
AU - Collins, Adrian L
AU - Evans, Robert
AU - Falloon, Peter D.
AU - Forber, Kirsty Jessica
AU - Hiscock, Kevin M
AU - Kahana, Ron
AU - Macleod, Christopher J.A.
AU - Ockenden, Mary
AU - Villamizar, Martha L.
AU - Wearing, Catherine Louise
AU - Withers, Paul John Anthony
AU - Zhou, Jian
AU - Barber, N. J.
AU - Haygarth, Philip Matthew
PY - 2018/8/15
Y1 - 2018/8/15
N2 - River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.
AB - River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.
U2 - 10.1002/hyp.13217
DO - 10.1002/hyp.13217
M3 - Journal article
VL - 32
SP - 2779
EP - 2787
JO - Hydrological Processes
JF - Hydrological Processes
SN - 0885-6087
IS - 17
ER -