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  • Adgeo 29 13 2011

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A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting a case study in the Cevennes region

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A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting a case study in the Cevennes region. / Alfieri, L.; Smith, P. J.; Thielen-del Pozo, J. et al.
In: Advances in Geosciences, Vol. 29, 2011, p. 13-20.

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Alfieri L, Smith PJ, Thielen-del Pozo J, Beven KJ. A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting a case study in the Cevennes region. Advances in Geosciences. 2011;29:13-20. doi: 10.5194/adgeo-29-13-2011

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Alfieri, L. ; Smith, P. J. ; Thielen-del Pozo, J. et al. / A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting a case study in the Cevennes region. In: Advances in Geosciences. 2011 ; Vol. 29. pp. 13-20.

Bibtex

@article{c49f82f6b96c41bc9b07f4a5bceb7adc,
title = "A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting a case study in the Cevennes region",
abstract = "A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting is developed within the IMPRINTS project (FP7-ENV-2008-1-226555). Instead of a single solution system, a chain of different models and input data is being proposed that act in sequence and provide decision makers with information of increasing accuracy in localization and magnitude as the events approach. The first system in the chain is developed by adapting methodologies of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) to forecast flash floods and has the potential to provide early indication for probability of flash floods at the European scale. The last system in the chain is an adaptation of the data based mechanistic model (DBM) to probabilistic numerical weather predictions (NWP) and observed rainfall, with the capability to forecast river levels up to 12 h ahead. The potential of both systems to provide complementary information is illustrated for a flash flood event occurred on 2 November 2008 in the C{\'e}vennes region in France. Results show that the uncertainty in meteorological forecasts largely affects the outcomes. However, at an early stage, uncertain results are still valuable to decision makers, as they raise preparedness towards prompt actions to be taken.",
author = "L. Alfieri and Smith, {P. J.} and {Thielen-del Pozo}, J. and Beven, {K. J.}",
note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.",
year = "2011",
doi = "10.5194/adgeo-29-13-2011",
language = "English",
volume = "29",
pages = "13--20",
journal = "Advances in Geosciences",
issn = "1680-7359",
publisher = "European Geosciences Union",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting a case study in the Cevennes region

AU - Alfieri, L.

AU - Smith, P. J.

AU - Thielen-del Pozo, J.

AU - Beven, K. J.

N1 - © Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting is developed within the IMPRINTS project (FP7-ENV-2008-1-226555). Instead of a single solution system, a chain of different models and input data is being proposed that act in sequence and provide decision makers with information of increasing accuracy in localization and magnitude as the events approach. The first system in the chain is developed by adapting methodologies of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) to forecast flash floods and has the potential to provide early indication for probability of flash floods at the European scale. The last system in the chain is an adaptation of the data based mechanistic model (DBM) to probabilistic numerical weather predictions (NWP) and observed rainfall, with the capability to forecast river levels up to 12 h ahead. The potential of both systems to provide complementary information is illustrated for a flash flood event occurred on 2 November 2008 in the Cévennes region in France. Results show that the uncertainty in meteorological forecasts largely affects the outcomes. However, at an early stage, uncertain results are still valuable to decision makers, as they raise preparedness towards prompt actions to be taken.

AB - A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting is developed within the IMPRINTS project (FP7-ENV-2008-1-226555). Instead of a single solution system, a chain of different models and input data is being proposed that act in sequence and provide decision makers with information of increasing accuracy in localization and magnitude as the events approach. The first system in the chain is developed by adapting methodologies of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) to forecast flash floods and has the potential to provide early indication for probability of flash floods at the European scale. The last system in the chain is an adaptation of the data based mechanistic model (DBM) to probabilistic numerical weather predictions (NWP) and observed rainfall, with the capability to forecast river levels up to 12 h ahead. The potential of both systems to provide complementary information is illustrated for a flash flood event occurred on 2 November 2008 in the Cévennes region in France. Results show that the uncertainty in meteorological forecasts largely affects the outcomes. However, at an early stage, uncertain results are still valuable to decision makers, as they raise preparedness towards prompt actions to be taken.

U2 - 10.5194/adgeo-29-13-2011

DO - 10.5194/adgeo-29-13-2011

M3 - Journal article

VL - 29

SP - 13

EP - 20

JO - Advances in Geosciences

JF - Advances in Geosciences

SN - 1680-7359

ER -