We have over 12,000 students, from over 100 countries, within one of the safest campuses in the UK


93% of Lancaster students go into work or further study within six months of graduating

Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Adaptive correction of deterministic models to ...
View graph of relations

« Back

Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article


Journal publication date2012
JournalHydrology and Earth System Sciences and Discussions
Journal number8
Number of pages17
Original languageEnglish


This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.

Bibliographic note

© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Related projects