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Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article


Journal publication date2012
JournalHydrology and Earth System Sciences
Number of pages17
Original languageEnglish


This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.

Bibliographic note

© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

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