Rights statement: © Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts
AU - Smith, Paul
AU - Beven, Keith
AU - Weerts, A. H.
AU - Leedal, David
N1 - © Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.
AB - This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.
U2 - 10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012
DO - 10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012
M3 - Journal article
VL - 16
SP - 2783
EP - 2799
JO - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
SN - 1027-5606
IS - 8
ER -