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  • Hess 16 2783 2012

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Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts

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Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts. / Smith, Paul; Beven, Keith; Weerts, A. H. et al.
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, No. 8, 2012, p. 2783-2799.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

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Smith P, Beven K, Weerts AH, Leedal D. Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2012;16(8):2783-2799. doi: 10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012

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Smith, Paul ; Beven, Keith ; Weerts, A. H. et al. / Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts. In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2012 ; Vol. 16, No. 8. pp. 2783-2799.

Bibtex

@article{f174a17b38be4752944954a1353a91c1,
title = "Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts",
abstract = "This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.",
author = "Paul Smith and Keith Beven and Weerts, {A. H.} and David Leedal",
note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.",
year = "2012",
doi = "10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
pages = "2783--2799",
journal = "Hydrology and Earth System Sciences",
issn = "1027-5606",
publisher = "Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH",
number = "8",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts

AU - Smith, Paul

AU - Beven, Keith

AU - Weerts, A. H.

AU - Leedal, David

N1 - © Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.

AB - This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offers a computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.

U2 - 10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012

DO - 10.5194/hess-16-2783-2012

M3 - Journal article

VL - 16

SP - 2783

EP - 2799

JO - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

SN - 1027-5606

IS - 8

ER -