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An analysis of international tourism demand in Spain.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published

Journal publication date12/1997
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Journal number4
Volume13
Number of pages6
Pages551-556
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Although the state-space, unobserved component approach to forecasting has many advantages, it must be applied carefully in practice and should not be used in an uncritical, ‘black box’ fashion. In particular, such an approach to the modelling and forecasting of Spanish tourism data is inappropriate and leads to misleading conclusions, particularly in relation to the uncritical selection and use of explanatory regression variables.