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An Evaluation of Quarterly National Institute Forecasts

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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An Evaluation of Quarterly National Institute Forecasts. / Holden, K; Peel, David.
In: Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1985, p. 227-234.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Holden, K & Peel, D 1985, 'An Evaluation of Quarterly National Institute Forecasts', Journal of Forecasting, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 227-234. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980040209

APA

Holden, K., & Peel, D. (1985). An Evaluation of Quarterly National Institute Forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 4(2), 227-234. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980040209

Vancouver

Holden K, Peel D. An Evaluation of Quarterly National Institute Forecasts. Journal of Forecasting. 1985;4(2):227-234. doi: 10.1002/for.3980040209

Author

Holden, K ; Peel, David. / An Evaluation of Quarterly National Institute Forecasts. In: Journal of Forecasting. 1985 ; Vol. 4, No. 2. pp. 227-234.

Bibtex

@article{eb03032e4d114759bad4aed7e0126c98,
title = "An Evaluation of Quarterly National Institute Forecasts",
abstract = "This paper examines the quarterly forecasts by the U.K. National Institute of Economic and Social Research of the rate of inflation and the change in real gross domestic product and its components for horizons of one to four quarters ahead in the U.K. The forecasts are tested to see if they satisfy three implications of the rational expectations hypothesis: unbiasedness, efficiency and consistency. Explicit consideration is given to the information set available when the forecasts are made. In general, the data are consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis and our results provide encouragement for the view that aggregate expectations will meet the ex post requirements of rationality.",
keywords = "Econometric forecasts, Rational expectations U.K. economy , National institute",
author = "K Holden and David Peel",
year = "1985",
doi = "10.1002/for.3980040209",
language = "English",
volume = "4",
pages = "227--234",
journal = "Journal of Forecasting",
issn = "0277-6693",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - An Evaluation of Quarterly National Institute Forecasts

AU - Holden, K

AU - Peel, David

PY - 1985

Y1 - 1985

N2 - This paper examines the quarterly forecasts by the U.K. National Institute of Economic and Social Research of the rate of inflation and the change in real gross domestic product and its components for horizons of one to four quarters ahead in the U.K. The forecasts are tested to see if they satisfy three implications of the rational expectations hypothesis: unbiasedness, efficiency and consistency. Explicit consideration is given to the information set available when the forecasts are made. In general, the data are consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis and our results provide encouragement for the view that aggregate expectations will meet the ex post requirements of rationality.

AB - This paper examines the quarterly forecasts by the U.K. National Institute of Economic and Social Research of the rate of inflation and the change in real gross domestic product and its components for horizons of one to four quarters ahead in the U.K. The forecasts are tested to see if they satisfy three implications of the rational expectations hypothesis: unbiasedness, efficiency and consistency. Explicit consideration is given to the information set available when the forecasts are made. In general, the data are consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis and our results provide encouragement for the view that aggregate expectations will meet the ex post requirements of rationality.

KW - Econometric forecasts

KW - Rational expectations U.K. economy

KW - National institute

U2 - 10.1002/for.3980040209

DO - 10.1002/for.3980040209

M3 - Journal article

VL - 4

SP - 227

EP - 234

JO - Journal of Forecasting

JF - Journal of Forecasting

SN - 0277-6693

IS - 2

ER -