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    Rights statement: The final, definitive version of this article has been published in the Journal, International Journal of Forecasting 29 (2), 2013, © ELSEVIER.

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Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions

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Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions. / Trapero Arenas, Juan; Pedregal, Diego J.; Fildes, Robert; Kourentzes, Nikolaos.

In: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 29, No. 2, 04.2013, p. 234-243.

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Trapero Arenas, Juan ; Pedregal, Diego J. ; Fildes, Robert ; Kourentzes, Nikolaos. / Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions. In: International Journal of Forecasting. 2013 ; Vol. 29, No. 2. pp. 234-243.

Bibtex

@article{5263de8116d4487fa6cd263babc3cfc3,
title = "Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions",
abstract = "Sales forecasting is increasingly complex due to many factors, such as product life cycles that have become shorter, more competitive markets and aggressive marketing. Often, forecasts are produced using a Forecasting Support System that integrates univariate statistical forecasts with judgment from experts in the organization. Managers add information to the forecast, like future promotions, potentially improving accuracy. Despite the importance of judgment and promotions, the literature devoted to study their relationship on forecasting performance is scarce. We analyze managerial adjustments accuracy under periods of promotions, based on weekly data from a manufacturing company. Intervention analysis is used to establish whether judgmental adjustments can be replaced by multivariate statistical models when responding to promotional information. We show that judgmental adjustments can enhance baseline forecasts during promotions, but not systematically. Transfer function models based on past promotions information achieved lower overall forecasting errors. Finally, a hybrid model illustrates the fact that human experts still added value to the transfer function models. ",
keywords = "Demand forecasting, Judgmental adjustments , Promotions, Transfer function , Intervention analysis",
author = "{Trapero Arenas}, Juan and Pedregal, {Diego J.} and Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes",
note = "The final, definitive version of this article has been published in the Journal, International Journal of Forecasting 29 (2), 2013, {\textcopyright} ELSEVIER.",
year = "2013",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.10.002",
language = "English",
volume = "29",
pages = "234--243",
journal = "International Journal of Forecasting",
issn = "0169-2070",
publisher = "Elsevier Science B.V.",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions

AU - Trapero Arenas, Juan

AU - Pedregal, Diego J.

AU - Fildes, Robert

AU - Kourentzes, Nikolaos

N1 - The final, definitive version of this article has been published in the Journal, International Journal of Forecasting 29 (2), 2013, © ELSEVIER.

PY - 2013/4

Y1 - 2013/4

N2 - Sales forecasting is increasingly complex due to many factors, such as product life cycles that have become shorter, more competitive markets and aggressive marketing. Often, forecasts are produced using a Forecasting Support System that integrates univariate statistical forecasts with judgment from experts in the organization. Managers add information to the forecast, like future promotions, potentially improving accuracy. Despite the importance of judgment and promotions, the literature devoted to study their relationship on forecasting performance is scarce. We analyze managerial adjustments accuracy under periods of promotions, based on weekly data from a manufacturing company. Intervention analysis is used to establish whether judgmental adjustments can be replaced by multivariate statistical models when responding to promotional information. We show that judgmental adjustments can enhance baseline forecasts during promotions, but not systematically. Transfer function models based on past promotions information achieved lower overall forecasting errors. Finally, a hybrid model illustrates the fact that human experts still added value to the transfer function models.

AB - Sales forecasting is increasingly complex due to many factors, such as product life cycles that have become shorter, more competitive markets and aggressive marketing. Often, forecasts are produced using a Forecasting Support System that integrates univariate statistical forecasts with judgment from experts in the organization. Managers add information to the forecast, like future promotions, potentially improving accuracy. Despite the importance of judgment and promotions, the literature devoted to study their relationship on forecasting performance is scarce. We analyze managerial adjustments accuracy under periods of promotions, based on weekly data from a manufacturing company. Intervention analysis is used to establish whether judgmental adjustments can be replaced by multivariate statistical models when responding to promotional information. We show that judgmental adjustments can enhance baseline forecasts during promotions, but not systematically. Transfer function models based on past promotions information achieved lower overall forecasting errors. Finally, a hybrid model illustrates the fact that human experts still added value to the transfer function models.

KW - Demand forecasting

KW - Judgmental adjustments

KW - Promotions

KW - Transfer function

KW - Intervention analysis

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.10.002

DO - 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.10.002

M3 - Journal article

VL - 29

SP - 234

EP - 243

JO - International Journal of Forecasting

JF - International Journal of Forecasting

SN - 0169-2070

IS - 2

ER -