Research output: Working paper
Research output: Working paper
}
TY - UNPB
T1 - Are we extracting the true risk neutral density from option prices?
T2 - a question with no easy answer
AU - Huang, James
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - In this paper we raise a question on the reliability of option implied risk neutral density. We prove that given any number of options, there exist numerous risk neutral densities which are piecewise constant, have only two values, either a lower bound or an upper bound on the true risk neutral density, and price all these options correctly. Similar results are proved with respect to the true risk neutral density's derivatives. These results show how difficult it is to ensure that the risk neutral density we extract from option prices is the true one and how large estimation errors can be.
AB - In this paper we raise a question on the reliability of option implied risk neutral density. We prove that given any number of options, there exist numerous risk neutral densities which are piecewise constant, have only two values, either a lower bound or an upper bound on the true risk neutral density, and price all these options correctly. Similar results are proved with respect to the true risk neutral density's derivatives. These results show how difficult it is to ensure that the risk neutral density we extract from option prices is the true one and how large estimation errors can be.
KW - option-implied risk neutral density
KW - option pricing
KW - estimation errors
M3 - Working paper
BT - Are we extracting the true risk neutral density from option prices?
PB - Lancaster University
CY - Lancaster
ER -