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  • Jackson_et_al-2015-Geophysical_Research_Letters

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Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

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  • L. S. Jackson
  • J. A. Crook
  • Andrew James Jarvis
  • David Thomas Leedal
  • A. Ridgwell
  • Naomi Vaughan
  • P. M. Forster
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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>28/02/2015
<mark>Journal</mark>Geophysical Research Letters
Issue number4
Volume42
Number of pages9
Pages (from-to)1223-1231
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date25/02/15
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate “real world” with imperfect “observations” and no rerunning or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast “optimal” decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10 years time series data exploited through an annual review cycle, uncertainties in observations and forcings were successfully managed.

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This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.