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Assessment of uncertainties in a long range atmospheric transport model : methodology, application and implications in a UK context.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published

Journal publication date12/2008
JournalEnvironmental Pollution
Journal number3
Volume156
Number of pages10
Pages997-1006
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Acid deposition models are inherently simplified representations of real world behaviour and their performance is best evaluated by comparison with observations. National and international acid rain policy assessments handle observed and modelled deposition fields in different ways. Here, both the observed and modelled deposition fields are seen as uncertain and the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework is used to choose acceptable sets of model input parameters that minimise the differences between them. These acceptable sets of model parameters are then used to estimate deposition budgets to the UK and to provide a probabilistic treatment of excess deposition over environmental quality standards (critical loads). Uncertainties in modelled depositions of S and N to the UK are quantified and their implications for planned emissions reductions considered.