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Catching a draft: On the process of selecting quarterbacks in the National Football League amateur draft

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>02/2011
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Productivity Analysis
Issue number1
Volume35
Number of pages13
Pages (from-to)35-47
Publication statusPublished
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

The reverse order college draft gives the worst teams in the National Football League (NFL) the opportunity to hire the best amateur talent. For it to work effectively, teams must be able to identify the “best” talent. Our study of NFL quarterbacks highlights problems with the draft process. We find only a weak correlation between teams’ evaluations on draft day and subsequent quarterback performance in the NFL. Moreover, many of the factors that enhance a quarterback’s draft position are unrelated to future NFL performance. Our analysis highlights the difficulties in evaluating workers in the uncertain environment of professional sports.