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  • Changes in the global oil market

    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Economics, 56, 2016 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.009

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Changes in the global oil market

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Published
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>05/2016
<mark>Journal</mark>Energy Economics
Volume56
Number of pages16
Pages (from-to)161-176
Publication StatusPublished
Early online date23/03/16
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Abstract

Changes in the parameters of a recursively identified oil market model are examined through an iterative algorithm that tests for possible breaks in coefficients and variances. The analysis detects breaks in the coefficients of the oil production and price equations, together with volatility shifts in all three equations of the model. Coefficient changes imply an enhanced response of production to aggregate demand shocks after 1980; and that the price response to supply shocks is more persistent from the mid-1990s. All variables evidence changes in the relative contributions of individual shocks to their forecast error variances, with coefficient and volatility breaks in the first half of the 1990s being particularly important in this respect. The results show that analysts of this market should eschew constant parameter models estimated over an extended period.

Bibliographic note

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Economics, 56, 2016 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.009