Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Changing responses in hydrology : assessing the uncertainty in physically based model predictions.
AU - Binley, Andrew M.
AU - Beven, Keith J.
AU - Calver, A.
AU - Watts, L. G.
PY - 1991
Y1 - 1991
N2 - Due to the large number of model parameters requiring calibration and their inherent uncertainty, the practical application of physically based hydrologic models is not a straightforward task and yet has received inadequate attention in the literature. This work investigates the determination and usefulness of a measure of predictive uncertainty in a particular distributed physically based model, using the methods of Rosenblueth (1975) and Monte Carlo simulation, in an application to an upland catchment in Wales. An examination of the role of predictive uncertainty in assessing the hydrological effect of land use change is also made. The results of the study suggest that, even following parameter constraint through calibration, the predictive uncertainty may be high and can be sensitive to the effects of land use change.
AB - Due to the large number of model parameters requiring calibration and their inherent uncertainty, the practical application of physically based hydrologic models is not a straightforward task and yet has received inadequate attention in the literature. This work investigates the determination and usefulness of a measure of predictive uncertainty in a particular distributed physically based model, using the methods of Rosenblueth (1975) and Monte Carlo simulation, in an application to an upland catchment in Wales. An examination of the role of predictive uncertainty in assessing the hydrological effect of land use change is also made. The results of the study suggest that, even following parameter constraint through calibration, the predictive uncertainty may be high and can be sensitive to the effects of land use change.
M3 - Journal article
VL - 27
SP - 1253
EP - 1261
JO - Water Resources Research
JF - Water Resources Research
SN - 0043-1397
IS - 6
ER -