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Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change

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Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change. / Winter, Hugo; Brown, Simon ; Tawn, Jonathan Angus.

In: Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, Vol. 1, No. 1, dzw006, 17.01.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Harvard

Winter, H, Brown, S & Tawn, JA 2017, 'Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change', Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, vol. 1, no. 1, dzw006. https://doi.org/10.1093/climsys/dzw006

APA

Vancouver

Winter H, Brown S, Tawn JA. Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change. Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System. 2017 Jan 17;1(1). dzw006. https://doi.org/10.1093/climsys/dzw006

Author

Winter, Hugo ; Brown, Simon ; Tawn, Jonathan Angus. / Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change. In: Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System. 2017 ; Vol. 1, No. 1.

Bibtex

@article{4a0446bc3c4d45c9979d1bd41b28b9b7,
title = "Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change",
abstract = "Understanding the impact of future heatwaves and the development of effective adaptation strategies requires knowledge of both the changes in heatwave temperatures and their durations. We develop a framework, utilising extreme value theory, which allows for the effect of a covariate on both the marginal quantiles and the temporal dependence structure of daily maximum temperatures enabling the changes in heatwave temperatures (marginal effects) to be identified separately from duration changes (dependence effects). To characterise future heatwave changes we use global mean temperature anomalies as a covariate to provide the metric for climate change. Future daily maximum temperatures and global mean temperature changes are provided by 13 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive forced with predicted future emissions of radiative forcing agents from the RCP8.5 scenario. For Orleans, central France, we find that for all GCMs temporal dependence is unaffected by greenhouse gas induced climate change indicating that durations of heatwaves that exceed time varying high thresholds (i.e., the 1 year level) will not change in the future. However, all GCMs project significant changes in the temperature margins with events similar to the 2003 European heatwave increasing by 1.3C to 2.7C and (8.0C to 18.7C) for a 1C (5C) increase in global temperature. Collectively our results indicate there could be a significant increase in heatwave risk as the world warms with heatwaves increasing in temperature significantly faster than the global mean and local average temperatures.",
keywords = "Climate change, extremal dependence, heatwaves, Markov chain, time-series extremes",
author = "Hugo Winter and Simon Brown and Tawn, {Jonathan Angus}",
year = "2017",
month = "1",
day = "17",
doi = "10.1093/climsys/dzw006",
language = "English",
volume = "1",
journal = "Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System",
issn = "2059-6987",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change

AU - Winter, Hugo

AU - Brown, Simon

AU - Tawn, Jonathan Angus

PY - 2017/1/17

Y1 - 2017/1/17

N2 - Understanding the impact of future heatwaves and the development of effective adaptation strategies requires knowledge of both the changes in heatwave temperatures and their durations. We develop a framework, utilising extreme value theory, which allows for the effect of a covariate on both the marginal quantiles and the temporal dependence structure of daily maximum temperatures enabling the changes in heatwave temperatures (marginal effects) to be identified separately from duration changes (dependence effects). To characterise future heatwave changes we use global mean temperature anomalies as a covariate to provide the metric for climate change. Future daily maximum temperatures and global mean temperature changes are provided by 13 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive forced with predicted future emissions of radiative forcing agents from the RCP8.5 scenario. For Orleans, central France, we find that for all GCMs temporal dependence is unaffected by greenhouse gas induced climate change indicating that durations of heatwaves that exceed time varying high thresholds (i.e., the 1 year level) will not change in the future. However, all GCMs project significant changes in the temperature margins with events similar to the 2003 European heatwave increasing by 1.3C to 2.7C and (8.0C to 18.7C) for a 1C (5C) increase in global temperature. Collectively our results indicate there could be a significant increase in heatwave risk as the world warms with heatwaves increasing in temperature significantly faster than the global mean and local average temperatures.

AB - Understanding the impact of future heatwaves and the development of effective adaptation strategies requires knowledge of both the changes in heatwave temperatures and their durations. We develop a framework, utilising extreme value theory, which allows for the effect of a covariate on both the marginal quantiles and the temporal dependence structure of daily maximum temperatures enabling the changes in heatwave temperatures (marginal effects) to be identified separately from duration changes (dependence effects). To characterise future heatwave changes we use global mean temperature anomalies as a covariate to provide the metric for climate change. Future daily maximum temperatures and global mean temperature changes are provided by 13 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 archive forced with predicted future emissions of radiative forcing agents from the RCP8.5 scenario. For Orleans, central France, we find that for all GCMs temporal dependence is unaffected by greenhouse gas induced climate change indicating that durations of heatwaves that exceed time varying high thresholds (i.e., the 1 year level) will not change in the future. However, all GCMs project significant changes in the temperature margins with events similar to the 2003 European heatwave increasing by 1.3C to 2.7C and (8.0C to 18.7C) for a 1C (5C) increase in global temperature. Collectively our results indicate there could be a significant increase in heatwave risk as the world warms with heatwaves increasing in temperature significantly faster than the global mean and local average temperatures.

KW - Climate change

KW - extremal dependence

KW - heatwaves

KW - Markov chain

KW - time-series extremes

U2 - 10.1093/climsys/dzw006

DO - 10.1093/climsys/dzw006

M3 - Journal article

VL - 1

JO - Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System

JF - Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System

SN - 2059-6987

IS - 1

M1 - dzw006

ER -