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Comments on generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation.

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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>2006
<mark>Journal</mark>Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Issue number10-11
Number of pages7
Pages (from-to)1315-1321
<mark>Original language</mark>English


The paper presents an application of the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology to the problem of estimating the uncertainty of predictions produced by environmental models. The methodology is placed in a wider context of different approaches to inverse modelling and, in particular, a comparison is made with Bayesian estimation techniques based on explicit structural assumptions about model error. Using a simple example of a rainfall-flow model, different evaluation measures and their influence on the prediction uncertainty and credibility intervals are demonstrated.