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Comments on generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published

Journal publication date2006
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Journal number10-11
Volume91
Number of pages7
Pages1315-1321
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

The paper presents an application of the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology to the problem of estimating the uncertainty of predictions produced by environmental models. The methodology is placed in a wider context of different approaches to inverse modelling and, in particular, a comparison is made with Bayesian estimation techniques based on explicit structural assumptions about model error. Using a simple example of a rainfall-flow model, different evaluation measures and their influence on the prediction uncertainty and credibility intervals are demonstrated.