Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Communicating uncertainty in flood inundation mapping
T2 - a case study
AU - Beven, Keith
AU - Lamb, Rob
AU - Leedal, Dave
AU - Hunter, Neil
PY - 2015/7/3
Y1 - 2015/7/3
N2 - An important issue in taking account of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping is the communication of the meaning of the outputs from an uncertainty analysis. In part this is because uncertainty estimation in this domain is not a simple statistical problem in that it involves knowledge uncertainties as well as statistical (aleatory) uncertainties in most of the important sources of uncertainty (estimated upstream discharges, effective roughness coefficients, flood plain and channel geometries and infrastructure, choice of model, fragility of defences, etc.). Thus, assumptions are required associated with the knowledge or lack of knowledge about these different sources of uncertainty. A framework has been developed in the form of a sequence of condition trees to help define these assumptions. Since stakeholders in the process can potentially be involved in making and recording decisions about those assumptions the framework also serves as a means of communicating the assumptions. Recording the decisions also serves to provide an audit trail for later evaluation of the decisions and hence the resulting analysis. Communication can also be helped in this type of spatial problem by effective visualization techniques and a visualization tool has been developed for both a web-based service using Google Maps™ and a desktop application using the Matlab™ numerical package.
AB - An important issue in taking account of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping is the communication of the meaning of the outputs from an uncertainty analysis. In part this is because uncertainty estimation in this domain is not a simple statistical problem in that it involves knowledge uncertainties as well as statistical (aleatory) uncertainties in most of the important sources of uncertainty (estimated upstream discharges, effective roughness coefficients, flood plain and channel geometries and infrastructure, choice of model, fragility of defences, etc.). Thus, assumptions are required associated with the knowledge or lack of knowledge about these different sources of uncertainty. A framework has been developed in the form of a sequence of condition trees to help define these assumptions. Since stakeholders in the process can potentially be involved in making and recording decisions about those assumptions the framework also serves as a means of communicating the assumptions. Recording the decisions also serves to provide an audit trail for later evaluation of the decisions and hence the resulting analysis. Communication can also be helped in this type of spatial problem by effective visualization techniques and a visualization tool has been developed for both a web-based service using Google Maps™ and a desktop application using the Matlab™ numerical package.
KW - Flood inundation models
KW - epistemic uncertainty
KW - condition tree
KW - visualization
U2 - 10.1080/15715124.2014.917318
DO - 10.1080/15715124.2014.917318
M3 - Journal article
VL - 13
SP - 285
EP - 295
JO - International Journal of River Basin Management
JF - International Journal of River Basin Management
SN - 1571-5124
IS - 3
ER -