TY - JOUR

T1 - Consistency of two major data sources for exchange rates in the interwar period and further evidence on the behaviour of exchange rates during hyperinflations

AU - Peel, David Alan

AU - Spiru, Alina Maria

N1 - This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Peel D, Spiru A. Consistency of two major data sources for exchange rates in the interwar period and further evidence on the behaviour of exchange rates during hyperinflations. Int J Fin Econ. 2018;23:442–455. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1631 which has been published in final form athttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ijfe.1631 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

PY - 2018/10

Y1 - 2018/10

N2 - We exploit a rather neglected source of data, The Commercial and Financial Chronicle to shed light on the behaviour of daily and weekly exchange rates throughout several interwar hyperinflation episodes, in particularthe German hyperinflation. The purpose of our analysis is three-fold: firstly, we investigate the consistency of exchange rate data by comparing the rates available from this source to those provided by a widely used source,Einzig (1937). Secondly, we scrutinize the commentaries offered by The Chronicle to shed light on the impact of news on the behaviour of the US dollar/German reichsmark exchange rate over the interwar German hyperinflation, and to check whether the narrative analysis provided therein is consistent with formal econometric analyses in dating when the probability of monetary reform became significantly different from zero. Thirdly, we examine the relationship between the US dollar/German reichsmark spot rate and Germanwholesale prices during the high inflation period of 1923 using data at (nearly) weekly frequency. We find evidence of long- run purchasing power parity, consistent with the findings of several extant studies that employmonthly data. However, we also show that complete adjustment to purchasing power parity did not appear to occur with the nearly weekly sampled data.

AB - We exploit a rather neglected source of data, The Commercial and Financial Chronicle to shed light on the behaviour of daily and weekly exchange rates throughout several interwar hyperinflation episodes, in particularthe German hyperinflation. The purpose of our analysis is three-fold: firstly, we investigate the consistency of exchange rate data by comparing the rates available from this source to those provided by a widely used source,Einzig (1937). Secondly, we scrutinize the commentaries offered by The Chronicle to shed light on the impact of news on the behaviour of the US dollar/German reichsmark exchange rate over the interwar German hyperinflation, and to check whether the narrative analysis provided therein is consistent with formal econometric analyses in dating when the probability of monetary reform became significantly different from zero. Thirdly, we examine the relationship between the US dollar/German reichsmark spot rate and Germanwholesale prices during the high inflation period of 1923 using data at (nearly) weekly frequency. We find evidence of long- run purchasing power parity, consistent with the findings of several extant studies that employmonthly data. However, we also show that complete adjustment to purchasing power parity did not appear to occur with the nearly weekly sampled data.

KW - data consistency

KW - date of monetary reforms

KW - exchange rates

KW - German hyperinflation

KW - Hyperinflation

KW - interwar European hyperinflations

KW - purchasing power parity

U2 - 10.1002/ijfe.1631

DO - 10.1002/ijfe.1631

M3 - Journal article

VL - 23

SP - 442

EP - 455

JO - International Journal of Finance and Economics

JF - International Journal of Finance and Economics

SN - 1076-9307

IS - 4

ER -