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  • Kourentzes_2019_Cross_temporal_coherent_forecasts__the_case_of_Australian_tourism_flows

    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Annals of Tourism Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Annals of Tourism Research 75, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2019.02.001

    Accepted author manuscript, 443 KB, PDF document

    Embargo ends: 22/03/21

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Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

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<mark>Journal publication date</mark>31/03/2019
<mark>Journal</mark>Annals of Tourism Research
Volume75
Number of pages17
Pages (from-to)393-409
Publication statusPublished
Early online date22/03/19
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Key to ensuring a successful tourism sector is timely policy making and detailed planning. National policy formulation and strategic planning requires long-term forecasts at an aggregate level, while regional operational decisions require short-term forecasts, relevant to local tourism operators. For aligned decisions at all levels, supporting forecasts must be `coherent', that is they should add up appropriately, across relevant demarcations (e.g., geographical divisions or market segments) and also across time. We propose an approach for generating coherent forecasts across both cross-sections and planning horizons for Australia. This results in significant improvements in forecast accuracy with substantial decision making benefits. Coherent forecasts help break intra- and inter-organisational information and planning silos, in a data driven fashion, blending information from different sources.

Bibliographic note

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Annals of Tourism Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Annals of Tourism Research 75, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2019.02.001