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Design and analysis of elimination surveys for neglected tropical diseases

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

E-pub ahead of print
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>13/01/2020
<mark>Journal</mark>Journal of Infectious Diseases
Number of pages7
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print
Early online date13/01/20
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

As neglected tropical diseases approach elimination status, there is a need to develop efficient sampling strategies for confirmation (or not) that elimination criteria have been met. This is an inherently difficult task because the relative precision of a prevalence estimate deteriorates as prevalence decreases, and classic survey sampling strategies based on random sampling therefore require
increasingly large sample sizes. More efficient strategies for survey design and analysis can be obtained by exploiting any spatial correlation in prevalence within a model-based geostatistics framework. This framework can be used for constructing predictive probability maps that can inform in-country decision makers of the likelihood that their elimination target has been met, and where to
invest in additional sampling. We evaluated our methodology using a case study of lymphatic filariasis in Ghana, demonstrating that a geostatistical approach outperforms approaches currently used to determine an evaluation unit’s elimination status.