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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management
AU - Webb, Colleen
AU - Ferrari, Matthew
AU - Lindström, Tom
AU - Carpenter, Tim
AU - Dürr, Salome
AU - Garner, Graeme
AU - Jewell, Christopher Parry
AU - Stevenson, Mark
AU - Ward, Michael
AU - Werkman, Marleen
AU - Backer, Jantien
AU - Tildesley, Michael
PY - 2017/3/1
Y1 - 2017/3/1
N2 - Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application.
AB - Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application.
KW - Ensemble modelling
KW - Structured decision-making
KW - Policy
KW - Disease management
KW - Foot and mouth disease
U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.01.003
DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.01.003
M3 - Journal article
VL - 138
SP - 124
EP - 133
JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine
SN - 0167-5877
ER -