Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables
AU - Lucy, David
AU - Robertson, Iain
AU - Aykroyd, Robert
AU - Pollard, Mark
PY - 2008/10
Y1 - 2008/10
N2 - Fitting a regression line to a set of measurements to investigate the relationship between a proxy estimate of past climate and known climatic parameters is a routine procedure. It is generally accepted that the higher the correlation between parameters, the more reliable the reconstruction. However, there is a lack of published work upon what correlation is the minimum acceptable value. Simulated data was used to demonstrate that the relationship between proxy values and the climatic data are adversely affected by falling correlation, to the point where, in a training set consisting of 100 pairs of temperature and tree-ring proxies, the mean 95% confidence interval width for the reconstructed temperature exceeds the total range of temperatures in the training set at or below r = 0.65. This correlation is typical of that used in many climate-proxy reconstructions, and it suggests that understanding of past climate variability may be somewhat constrained.
AB - Fitting a regression line to a set of measurements to investigate the relationship between a proxy estimate of past climate and known climatic parameters is a routine procedure. It is generally accepted that the higher the correlation between parameters, the more reliable the reconstruction. However, there is a lack of published work upon what correlation is the minimum acceptable value. Simulated data was used to demonstrate that the relationship between proxy values and the climatic data are adversely affected by falling correlation, to the point where, in a training set consisting of 100 pairs of temperature and tree-ring proxies, the mean 95% confidence interval width for the reconstructed temperature exceeds the total range of temperatures in the training set at or below r = 0.65. This correlation is typical of that used in many climate-proxy reconstructions, and it suggests that understanding of past climate variability may be somewhat constrained.
U2 - 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2008.04.008
DO - 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2008.04.008
M3 - Journal article
VL - 23
SP - 2961
EP - 2965
JO - Applied Geochemistry
JF - Applied Geochemistry
SN - 0883-2927
IS - 10
ER -