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Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables

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Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables. / Lucy, David; Robertson, Iain; Aykroyd, Robert et al.
In: Applied Geochemistry, Vol. 23, No. 10, 10.2008, p. 2961-2965.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Lucy, D, Robertson, I, Aykroyd, R & Pollard, M 2008, 'Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables', Applied Geochemistry, vol. 23, no. 10, pp. 2961-2965. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2008.04.008

APA

Lucy, D., Robertson, I., Aykroyd, R., & Pollard, M. (2008). Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables. Applied Geochemistry, 23(10), 2961-2965. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2008.04.008

Vancouver

Lucy D, Robertson I, Aykroyd R, Pollard M. Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables. Applied Geochemistry. 2008 Oct;23(10):2961-2965. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2008.04.008

Author

Lucy, David ; Robertson, Iain ; Aykroyd, Robert et al. / Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables. In: Applied Geochemistry. 2008 ; Vol. 23, No. 10. pp. 2961-2965.

Bibtex

@article{f846100d3de3484da56e3047fd018b58,
title = "Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables",
abstract = "Fitting a regression line to a set of measurements to investigate the relationship between a proxy estimate of past climate and known climatic parameters is a routine procedure. It is generally accepted that the higher the correlation between parameters, the more reliable the reconstruction. However, there is a lack of published work upon what correlation is the minimum acceptable value. Simulated data was used to demonstrate that the relationship between proxy values and the climatic data are adversely affected by falling correlation, to the point where, in a training set consisting of 100 pairs of temperature and tree-ring proxies, the mean 95% confidence interval width for the reconstructed temperature exceeds the total range of temperatures in the training set at or below r = 0.65. This correlation is typical of that used in many climate-proxy reconstructions, and it suggests that understanding of past climate variability may be somewhat constrained.",
author = "David Lucy and Iain Robertson and Robert Aykroyd and Mark Pollard",
year = "2008",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1016/j.apgeochem.2008.04.008",
language = "English",
volume = "23",
pages = "2961--2965",
journal = "Applied Geochemistry",
issn = "0883-2927",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "10",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimates of uncertainty in the prediction of past climatic variables

AU - Lucy, David

AU - Robertson, Iain

AU - Aykroyd, Robert

AU - Pollard, Mark

PY - 2008/10

Y1 - 2008/10

N2 - Fitting a regression line to a set of measurements to investigate the relationship between a proxy estimate of past climate and known climatic parameters is a routine procedure. It is generally accepted that the higher the correlation between parameters, the more reliable the reconstruction. However, there is a lack of published work upon what correlation is the minimum acceptable value. Simulated data was used to demonstrate that the relationship between proxy values and the climatic data are adversely affected by falling correlation, to the point where, in a training set consisting of 100 pairs of temperature and tree-ring proxies, the mean 95% confidence interval width for the reconstructed temperature exceeds the total range of temperatures in the training set at or below r = 0.65. This correlation is typical of that used in many climate-proxy reconstructions, and it suggests that understanding of past climate variability may be somewhat constrained.

AB - Fitting a regression line to a set of measurements to investigate the relationship between a proxy estimate of past climate and known climatic parameters is a routine procedure. It is generally accepted that the higher the correlation between parameters, the more reliable the reconstruction. However, there is a lack of published work upon what correlation is the minimum acceptable value. Simulated data was used to demonstrate that the relationship between proxy values and the climatic data are adversely affected by falling correlation, to the point where, in a training set consisting of 100 pairs of temperature and tree-ring proxies, the mean 95% confidence interval width for the reconstructed temperature exceeds the total range of temperatures in the training set at or below r = 0.65. This correlation is typical of that used in many climate-proxy reconstructions, and it suggests that understanding of past climate variability may be somewhat constrained.

U2 - 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2008.04.008

DO - 10.1016/j.apgeochem.2008.04.008

M3 - Journal article

VL - 23

SP - 2961

EP - 2965

JO - Applied Geochemistry

JF - Applied Geochemistry

SN - 0883-2927

IS - 10

ER -