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Estimating Portfolio Risk for Tail Risk Protection Strategies

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

E-pub ahead of print
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>3/02/2020
<mark>Journal</mark>European Financial Management
Number of pages40
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print
Early online date3/02/20
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

We forecast portfolio risk for managing dynamic tail risk protection strategies, based on extreme value theory, expectile regression, Copula-GARCH and dynamic GAS models. Utilizing a loss function that overcomes the lack of elicitability for Expected Shortfall, we propose a novel Expected Shortfall (and Value-at-Risk) forecast combination approach, which dominates simple
and sophisticated standalone models as well as a simple average combination approach in modelling the tail of the portfolio return distribution. While the associated dynamic risk targeting or portfolio insurance strategies provide effective downside protection, the latter strategies suffer less from inferior risk forecasts given the defensive portfolio insurance mechanics.