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Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods

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Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods. / Deribe, Kebede; Cano, Jorge; Giorgi, Emanuele; Pigott, David M.; Golding, Nick ; Pullan, Rachel L.; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Cromwell, Elizabeth A.; OsgoodZimmerman, Aaron; Enquselassie, Fikre; Hailu, Asrat; Murray, Christopher J. L.; Newport, Melanie J.; Brooker, Simon J.; Hay, Simon I.; Davey, Gail.

In: Wellcome Open Research, Vol. 2, 78, 15.12.2017.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Harvard

Deribe, K, Cano, J, Giorgi, E, Pigott, DM, Golding, N, Pullan, RL, Noor, AM, Cromwell, EA, OsgoodZimmerman, A, Enquselassie, F, Hailu, A, Murray, CJL, Newport, MJ, Brooker, SJ, Hay, SI & Davey, G 2017, 'Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods', Wellcome Open Research, vol. 2, 78. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.12483.2

APA

Deribe, K., Cano, J., Giorgi, E., Pigott, D. M., Golding, N., Pullan, R. L., Noor, A. M., Cromwell, E. A., OsgoodZimmerman, A., Enquselassie, F., Hailu, A., Murray, C. J. L., Newport, M. J., Brooker, S. J., Hay, S. I., & Davey, G. (2017). Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods. Wellcome Open Research, 2, [78]. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.12483.2

Vancouver

Deribe K, Cano J, Giorgi E, Pigott DM, Golding N, Pullan RL et al. Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods. Wellcome Open Research. 2017 Dec 15;2. 78. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.12483.2

Author

Deribe, Kebede ; Cano, Jorge ; Giorgi, Emanuele ; Pigott, David M. ; Golding, Nick ; Pullan, Rachel L. ; Noor, Abdisalan M. ; Cromwell, Elizabeth A. ; OsgoodZimmerman, Aaron ; Enquselassie, Fikre ; Hailu, Asrat ; Murray, Christopher J. L. ; Newport, Melanie J. ; Brooker, Simon J. ; Hay, Simon I. ; Davey, Gail. / Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods. In: Wellcome Open Research. 2017 ; Vol. 2.

Bibtex

@article{86c42cfc07c1405291ebf1da49fca99e,
title = "Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods",
abstract = "Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia.Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015.Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People{\textquoteright}s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.",
author = "Kebede Deribe and Jorge Cano and Emanuele Giorgi and Pigott, {David M.} and Nick Golding and Pullan, {Rachel L.} and Noor, {Abdisalan M.} and Cromwell, {Elizabeth A.} and Aaron OsgoodZimmerman and Fikre Enquselassie and Asrat Hailu and Murray, {Christopher J. L.} and Newport, {Melanie J.} and Brooker, {Simon J.} and Hay, {Simon I.} and Gail Davey",
year = "2017",
month = dec
day = "15",
doi = "10.12688/wellcomeopenres.12483.2",
language = "English",
volume = "2",
journal = "Wellcome Open Research",
issn = "2398-502X",
publisher = "F1000 Research Ltd.",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods

AU - Deribe, Kebede

AU - Cano, Jorge

AU - Giorgi, Emanuele

AU - Pigott, David M.

AU - Golding, Nick

AU - Pullan, Rachel L.

AU - Noor, Abdisalan M.

AU - Cromwell, Elizabeth A.

AU - OsgoodZimmerman, Aaron

AU - Enquselassie, Fikre

AU - Hailu, Asrat

AU - Murray, Christopher J. L.

AU - Newport, Melanie J.

AU - Brooker, Simon J.

AU - Hay, Simon I.

AU - Davey, Gail

PY - 2017/12/15

Y1 - 2017/12/15

N2 - Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia.Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015.Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.

AB - Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia.Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015.Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.

U2 - 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.12483.2

DO - 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.12483.2

M3 - Journal article

VL - 2

JO - Wellcome Open Research

JF - Wellcome Open Research

SN - 2398-502X

M1 - 78

ER -