Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimation issues and generational changes in modelling criminal career length
AU - Francis, Brian J.
AU - Piquero, Alex R.
AU - Soothill, Keith
N1 - RAE_import_type : Journal article RAE_uoa_type : Statistics and Operational Research
PY - 2007/1
Y1 - 2007/1
N2 - This article seeks to model criminal career length using data from six different birth cohorts born between 1953 and 1978, totaling more than 58,000 males and females from England and Wales. A secondary aim of this article is to consider whether information available at the first court appearance leading to a conviction is associated with the length of a criminal career. Four key findings emerged. First, one can estimate career length from variables available at the first court conviction. Second, the risk of desistance remains constant during a period of 20 to 25 years if the offender does not immediately stop after the first conviction. Third, the most significant variable is age at first conviction. Finally, gender differences and birth cohorts are also important.
AB - This article seeks to model criminal career length using data from six different birth cohorts born between 1953 and 1978, totaling more than 58,000 males and females from England and Wales. A secondary aim of this article is to consider whether information available at the first court appearance leading to a conviction is associated with the length of a criminal career. Four key findings emerged. First, one can estimate career length from variables available at the first court conviction. Second, the risk of desistance remains constant during a period of 20 to 25 years if the offender does not immediately stop after the first conviction. Third, the most significant variable is age at first conviction. Finally, gender differences and birth cohorts are also important.
KW - career length • criminal careers • cohort effects • Cox model • survival analysis
U2 - 10.1177/0011128706294441
DO - 10.1177/0011128706294441
M3 - Journal article
VL - 53
SP - 84
EP - 105
JO - Crime and Delinquency
JF - Crime and Delinquency
SN - 1552-387X
IS - 1
ER -