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Estimation of storm peak and intrastorm directional-seasonal design conditions in the North Sea

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Estimation of storm peak and intrastorm directional-seasonal design conditions in the North Sea. / Feld, G.; Randell, D.; Wu, Y. et al.
In: Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Vol. 137, No. 2, 021102, 2015.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Feld, G, Randell, D, Wu, Y, Ewans, K & Jonathan, P 2015, 'Estimation of storm peak and intrastorm directional-seasonal design conditions in the North Sea', Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, vol. 137, no. 2, 021102. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4029639

APA

Feld, G., Randell, D., Wu, Y., Ewans, K., & Jonathan, P. (2015). Estimation of storm peak and intrastorm directional-seasonal design conditions in the North Sea. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 137(2), Article 021102. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4029639

Vancouver

Feld G, Randell D, Wu Y, Ewans K, Jonathan P. Estimation of storm peak and intrastorm directional-seasonal design conditions in the North Sea. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. 2015;137(2):021102. doi: 10.1115/1.4029639

Author

Feld, G. ; Randell, D. ; Wu, Y. et al. / Estimation of storm peak and intrastorm directional-seasonal design conditions in the North Sea. In: Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. 2015 ; Vol. 137, No. 2.

Bibtex

@article{1a4b456ce73e44f1be81ef2d56b0f323,
title = "Estimation of storm peak and intrastorm directional-seasonal design conditions in the North Sea",
abstract = "Specification of realistic environmental design conditions for marine structures is of fundamental importance to their reliability over time. Design conditions for extreme waves and storm severities are typically estimated by extreme value analysis of time series of measured or hindcast significant wave height, HS. This analysis is complicated by two effects. First, HS exhibits temporal dependence. Second, the characteristics of Hsp S are nonstationary with respect to multiple covariates, particularly wave direction, and season. We develop directional-seasonal design values for storm peak significant wave height (Hsp S ) by estimation of, and simulation under a nonstationary extreme value model for Hsp S . Design values for significant wave height (HS) are estimated by simulating storm trajectories of HS consistent with the simulated storm peak events. Design distributions for individual maximum wave height (Hmax) are estimated by marginalization using the known conditional distribution for Hmax given HS. Particular attention is paid to the assessment of model bias and quantification of model parameter and design value uncertainty using bootstrap resampling. We also outline existing work on extension to estimation of maximum crest elevation and total extreme water level. {\textcopyright} 2015 by ASME.",
keywords = "Ocean currents, Offshore structures, Storms, Time series analysis, Water levels, Water waves, Bootstrap resampling, Conditional distribution, Design condition, Extreme value analysis, Maximum wave height, Significant wave height, Storm trajectories, Temporal dependence, Hydraulic structures, bootstrapping, design method, estimation method, hindcasting, numerical model, storm, time series, trajectory, wave height, Atlantic Ocean, North Sea",
author = "G. Feld and D. Randell and Y. Wu and K. Ewans and P. Jonathan",
year = "2015",
doi = "10.1115/1.4029639",
language = "English",
volume = "137",
journal = "Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering",
issn = "0892-7219",
publisher = "American Society of Mechanical Engineers(ASME)",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimation of storm peak and intrastorm directional-seasonal design conditions in the North Sea

AU - Feld, G.

AU - Randell, D.

AU - Wu, Y.

AU - Ewans, K.

AU - Jonathan, P.

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Specification of realistic environmental design conditions for marine structures is of fundamental importance to their reliability over time. Design conditions for extreme waves and storm severities are typically estimated by extreme value analysis of time series of measured or hindcast significant wave height, HS. This analysis is complicated by two effects. First, HS exhibits temporal dependence. Second, the characteristics of Hsp S are nonstationary with respect to multiple covariates, particularly wave direction, and season. We develop directional-seasonal design values for storm peak significant wave height (Hsp S ) by estimation of, and simulation under a nonstationary extreme value model for Hsp S . Design values for significant wave height (HS) are estimated by simulating storm trajectories of HS consistent with the simulated storm peak events. Design distributions for individual maximum wave height (Hmax) are estimated by marginalization using the known conditional distribution for Hmax given HS. Particular attention is paid to the assessment of model bias and quantification of model parameter and design value uncertainty using bootstrap resampling. We also outline existing work on extension to estimation of maximum crest elevation and total extreme water level. © 2015 by ASME.

AB - Specification of realistic environmental design conditions for marine structures is of fundamental importance to their reliability over time. Design conditions for extreme waves and storm severities are typically estimated by extreme value analysis of time series of measured or hindcast significant wave height, HS. This analysis is complicated by two effects. First, HS exhibits temporal dependence. Second, the characteristics of Hsp S are nonstationary with respect to multiple covariates, particularly wave direction, and season. We develop directional-seasonal design values for storm peak significant wave height (Hsp S ) by estimation of, and simulation under a nonstationary extreme value model for Hsp S . Design values for significant wave height (HS) are estimated by simulating storm trajectories of HS consistent with the simulated storm peak events. Design distributions for individual maximum wave height (Hmax) are estimated by marginalization using the known conditional distribution for Hmax given HS. Particular attention is paid to the assessment of model bias and quantification of model parameter and design value uncertainty using bootstrap resampling. We also outline existing work on extension to estimation of maximum crest elevation and total extreme water level. © 2015 by ASME.

KW - Ocean currents

KW - Offshore structures

KW - Storms

KW - Time series analysis

KW - Water levels

KW - Water waves

KW - Bootstrap resampling

KW - Conditional distribution

KW - Design condition

KW - Extreme value analysis

KW - Maximum wave height

KW - Significant wave height

KW - Storm trajectories

KW - Temporal dependence

KW - Hydraulic structures

KW - bootstrapping

KW - design method

KW - estimation method

KW - hindcasting

KW - numerical model

KW - storm

KW - time series

KW - trajectory

KW - wave height

KW - Atlantic Ocean

KW - North Sea

U2 - 10.1115/1.4029639

DO - 10.1115/1.4029639

M3 - Journal article

VL - 137

JO - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering

JF - Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering

SN - 0892-7219

IS - 2

M1 - 021102

ER -