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Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia

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Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia. / Alderton, Simon; Macleod, Ewan T; Anderson, Neil E; Machila, Noreen; Simuunza, Martin; Welburn, Susan C; Atkinson, Peter M.

In: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol. 12, No. 11, e0006905, 08.11.2018.

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Alderton, Simon ; Macleod, Ewan T ; Anderson, Neil E ; Machila, Noreen ; Simuunza, Martin ; Welburn, Susan C ; Atkinson, Peter M. / Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia. In: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2018 ; Vol. 12, No. 11.

Bibtex

@article{b934bb678f7c46108e09d27952c8fbf9,
title = "Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia",
abstract = "This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission. The ABM model, fitted at a fine spatial scale, was used to explore the impact of a growing host population on the spread of disease along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how increases in human and domestic animal population could impact the contact network between vector and host, the subsequent transmission patterns, and disease incidence outcomes in the region. Modelled incidence rates showed increases in rHAT transmission in both humans and cattle. The primary demographic attribution of infection switched dramatically from young children of both sexes attending school, to adult women performing activities with shorter but more frequent trips, such as water and firewood collection, with men more protected due to the presence of cattle in their routines. The interpretation of model output provides a plausible insight into both population development and disease transmission in the near future in the region and such techniques could aid well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future.",
author = "Simon Alderton and Macleod, {Ewan T} and Anderson, {Neil E} and Noreen Machila and Martin Simuunza and Welburn, {Susan C} and Atkinson, {Peter M}",
year = "2018",
month = "11",
day = "8",
doi = "10.1371/journal.pntd.0006905",
language = "English",
volume = "12",
journal = "PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases",
issn = "1935-2727",
publisher = "Public Library of Science",
number = "11",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia

AU - Alderton, Simon

AU - Macleod, Ewan T

AU - Anderson, Neil E

AU - Machila, Noreen

AU - Simuunza, Martin

AU - Welburn, Susan C

AU - Atkinson, Peter M

PY - 2018/11/8

Y1 - 2018/11/8

N2 - This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission. The ABM model, fitted at a fine spatial scale, was used to explore the impact of a growing host population on the spread of disease along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how increases in human and domestic animal population could impact the contact network between vector and host, the subsequent transmission patterns, and disease incidence outcomes in the region. Modelled incidence rates showed increases in rHAT transmission in both humans and cattle. The primary demographic attribution of infection switched dramatically from young children of both sexes attending school, to adult women performing activities with shorter but more frequent trips, such as water and firewood collection, with men more protected due to the presence of cattle in their routines. The interpretation of model output provides a plausible insight into both population development and disease transmission in the near future in the region and such techniques could aid well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future.

AB - This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission. The ABM model, fitted at a fine spatial scale, was used to explore the impact of a growing host population on the spread of disease along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how increases in human and domestic animal population could impact the contact network between vector and host, the subsequent transmission patterns, and disease incidence outcomes in the region. Modelled incidence rates showed increases in rHAT transmission in both humans and cattle. The primary demographic attribution of infection switched dramatically from young children of both sexes attending school, to adult women performing activities with shorter but more frequent trips, such as water and firewood collection, with men more protected due to the presence of cattle in their routines. The interpretation of model output provides a plausible insight into both population development and disease transmission in the near future in the region and such techniques could aid well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future.

U2 - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006905

DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006905

M3 - Journal article

VL - 12

JO - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

JF - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

SN - 1935-2727

IS - 11

M1 - e0006905

ER -