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Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/ProceedingsPaper

Published

Publication date2012
Host publicationWeather radar and hydrology
EditorsRobert J. Moore, Steven J. Cole, Anthony J. Illingworth
Place of publicationWallingford
PublisherInternational Association of Hydrological Sciences
Pages562-567
Number of pages6
Volume351
ISBN (Print)9781907161261
<mark>Original language</mark>English

Conference

ConferenceInternational Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology
CityExeter
Period18/04/1121/04/11

Publication series

NameIAHS Publication
PublisherInternational Association of Hydrological Sciences
Volume351
ISSN (Print)0144-7815

Conference

ConferenceInternational Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology
CityExeter
Period18/04/1121/04/11

Abstract

The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.

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