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Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

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Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. / Smith, Paul; Beven, Keith; Panziera, Luca et al.
Weather radar and hydrology. ed. / Robert J. Moore; Steven J. Cole; Anthony J. Illingworth. Vol. 351 Wallingford: International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2012. p. 562-567 (IAHS Publication; Vol. 351).

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSN › Conference contribution/Paper › peer-review

Harvard

Smith, P, Beven, K, Panziera, L & Germann, U 2012, Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. in RJ Moore, SJ Cole & AJ Illingworth (eds), Weather radar and hydrology. vol. 351, IAHS Publication, vol. 351, International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Wallingford, pp. 562-567, International Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology, Exeter, 18/04/11. <http://iahs.info/redbooks/a351/abs_351_0562.pdf>

APA

Smith, P., Beven, K., Panziera, L., & Germann, U. (2012). Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. In R. J. Moore, S. J. Cole, & A. J. Illingworth (Eds.), Weather radar and hydrology (Vol. 351, pp. 562-567). (IAHS Publication; Vol. 351). International Association of Hydrological Sciences. http://iahs.info/redbooks/a351/abs_351_0562.pdf

Vancouver

Smith P, Beven K, Panziera L, Germann U. Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. In Moore RJ, Cole SJ, Illingworth AJ, editors, Weather radar and hydrology. Vol. 351. Wallingford: International Association of Hydrological Sciences. 2012. p. 562-567. (IAHS Publication).

Author

Smith, Paul ; Beven, Keith ; Panziera, Luca et al. / Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. Weather radar and hydrology. editor / Robert J. Moore ; Steven J. Cole ; Anthony J. Illingworth. Vol. 351 Wallingford : International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2012. pp. 562-567 (IAHS Publication).

Bibtex

@inproceedings{a60fca90b40947129298bcfe9b8e236a,
title = "Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts",
abstract = "The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.",
keywords = "SYSTEMS, LIMITS, SCALE, IMPRINTS, DBM, PREDICTION, IMAGES, NORA, flash flood, PRECIPITATION, VERIFICATION, CATCHMENT, PREDICTABILITY, METHODOLOGY, Verzasca",
author = "Paul Smith and Keith Beven and Luca Panziera and Urs Germann",
year = "2012",
language = "English",
isbn = "9781907161261",
volume = "351",
series = "IAHS Publication",
publisher = "International Association of Hydrological Sciences",
pages = "562--567",
editor = "Moore, {Robert J.} and Cole, {Steven J.} and Illingworth, {Anthony J.}",
booktitle = "Weather radar and hydrology",
note = "International Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology ; Conference date: 18-04-2011 Through 21-04-2011",

}

RIS

TY - GEN

T1 - Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts

AU - Smith, Paul

AU - Beven, Keith

AU - Panziera, Luca

AU - Germann, Urs

PY - 2012

Y1 - 2012

N2 - The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.

AB - The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.

KW - SYSTEMS

KW - LIMITS

KW - SCALE

KW - IMPRINTS

KW - DBM

KW - PREDICTION

KW - IMAGES

KW - NORA

KW - flash flood

KW - PRECIPITATION

KW - VERIFICATION

KW - CATCHMENT

KW - PREDICTABILITY

KW - METHODOLOGY

KW - Verzasca

M3 - Conference contribution/Paper

SN - 9781907161261

VL - 351

T3 - IAHS Publication

SP - 562

EP - 567

BT - Weather radar and hydrology

A2 - Moore, Robert J.

A2 - Cole, Steven J.

A2 - Illingworth, Anthony J.

PB - International Association of Hydrological Sciences

CY - Wallingford

T2 - International Symposium on Weather Radar and Hydrology

Y2 - 18 April 2011 through 21 April 2011

ER -