Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation of subcatchment rainfalls and discharges with the aim of improving dam safety assessment in a large basin in the Czech Republic.
AU - Blazkova, Sarka
AU - Beven, Keith J.
PY - 2004/6/15
Y1 - 2004/6/15
N2 - This paper applies a continuous simulation approach to the estimation of flood frequency for a dam site in a large catchment (1186 km2) in the Czech Republic. The models used allow for the simulation of both high intensity and low intensity rainfall events, and snowmelt events, over subcatchments in contributing to the flood frequency distribution. The methodology is implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework that allows for uncertainty in the model parameters and for the realisation effect in reproducing the apparent statistics of potential flood events represented by the short series of observations. A fuzzy rules method is used to evaluate each model run, based on the available observations of peak discharges, flow duration curves and snow water equivalents. This yields a combined likelihood measure that is used to weight the flood predictions for each behavioural parameter set. The cumulative distribution for flood peaks for any chosen probability of exceedence over all behavioural models can then be estimated. This can be used to assess the risk of a potential flood peak (or duration or volume) within a risk based dam safety assessment.
AB - This paper applies a continuous simulation approach to the estimation of flood frequency for a dam site in a large catchment (1186 km2) in the Czech Republic. The models used allow for the simulation of both high intensity and low intensity rainfall events, and snowmelt events, over subcatchments in contributing to the flood frequency distribution. The methodology is implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework that allows for uncertainty in the model parameters and for the realisation effect in reproducing the apparent statistics of potential flood events represented by the short series of observations. A fuzzy rules method is used to evaluate each model run, based on the available observations of peak discharges, flow duration curves and snow water equivalents. This yields a combined likelihood measure that is used to weight the flood predictions for each behavioural parameter set. The cumulative distribution for flood peaks for any chosen probability of exceedence over all behavioural models can then be estimated. This can be used to assess the risk of a potential flood peak (or duration or volume) within a risk based dam safety assessment.
KW - Flood frequency
KW - Predictive uncertainty
KW - TOPMODEL
KW - Generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation
KW - Snowmelt
KW - Fuzzy inference
U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.12.025
DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.12.025
M3 - Journal article
VL - 292
SP - 153
EP - 172
JO - Journal of Hydrology
JF - Journal of Hydrology
IS - 1-4
ER -