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Flood-plain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published

  • Giuliano Di Baldassarre
  • Guy Schumann
  • Paul D. Bates
  • Jim E. Freer
  • Keith J. Beven
Journal publication date2010
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Journal number3
Volume55
Number of pages13
Pages364-376
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.