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Forecasting foreign exchange rates using Support Vector Regression

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings - With ISBN/ISSNConference contribution/Paperpeer-review

Published
Publication date28/10/2013
Host publication2013 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering & Economics (CIFEr)
PublisherIEEE
Pages34-41
Number of pages8
ISBN (electronic)9781467359214
<mark>Original language</mark>English
Event2013 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics, CIFEr 2013 - 2013 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2013 - Singapore, Singapore
Duration: 16/04/201319/04/2013

Conference

Conference2013 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics, CIFEr 2013 - 2013 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2013
Country/TerritorySingapore
CitySingapore
Period16/04/1319/04/13

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 2013 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics, CIFEr 2013 - 2013 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2013

Conference

Conference2013 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics, CIFEr 2013 - 2013 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence, SSCI 2013
Country/TerritorySingapore
CitySingapore
Period16/04/1319/04/13

Abstract

Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithms have received increasing interest in forecasting, promising nonlinear, non-parametric and data driven regression capabilities for time series prediction. But despite evidence on the nonlinear properties of foreign exchange markets, applications of SVR in price or return forecasting have demonstrated only mixed results. However, prior studies were limited to using only autoregressive time series inputs to SVR. This paper evaluates the efficacy of SVR to predict the Euro-US Dollar exchange rate using input vectors enhanced with explanatory variables on mean-reversion movements derived from Bollinger Bands technical indicators. Using a rigorous empirical out-of-sample evaluation of multiple rolling forecast origins, we assess the accuracy of different SVR input vectors, including upper and lower BB, binary trading signals of BB, and combinations of the above. As a result, a local SVR model using autoregressive lags in conjunction with BB bands and BB indicators, and recalibrated yearly, outperforms the random walk on directional and all other error metrics, showing some promise for an SVR application.