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  • Huang_Fildes_Soopramanien_2019_MANUSCRIPT_accepted_version

    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was acceptedfor publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work 3since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 279, 2, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011

    Accepted author manuscript, 684 KB, PDF-document

    Embargo ends: 10/06/21

    Available under license: CC BY-NC-ND

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Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

E-pub ahead of print
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>1/12/2019
<mark>Journal</mark>European Journal of Operational Research
Issue number2
Volume279
Number of pages12
Pages (from-to)459-470
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print
Early online date10/06/19
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Grocery retailers need accurate sales forecasts at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level to effectively manage their inventory. Previous studies have proposed forecasting methods which incorporate the effect of various marketing activities including prices and promotions. However, their methods have overlooked that the effects of the marketing activities on product sales may change over time. Therefore, these methods may be subject to the structural change problem and generate biased and less accurate forecasts. In this study, we propose more effective methods to forecast retailer product sales which take into account the problem of structural change. Based on data from a well-known US retailer, we show that our methods outperform conventional forecasting methods that ignore the possibility of such changes.

Bibliographic note

This is the author’s version of a work that was acceptedfor publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work 3since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 279, 2, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011