Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was acceptedfor publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work 3since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 279, 2, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011
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Available under license: CC BY-NC-ND
Final published version
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change
AU - Huang, T.
AU - Fildes, R.
AU - Soopramanien, D.
N1 - This is the author’s version of a work that was acceptedfor publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work 3since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 279, 2, 2019 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011
PY - 2019/12/1
Y1 - 2019/12/1
N2 - Grocery retailers need accurate sales forecasts at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level to effectively manage their inventory. Previous studies have proposed forecasting methods which incorporate the effect of various marketing activities including prices and promotions. However, their methods have overlooked that the effects of the marketing activities on product sales may change over time. Therefore, these methods may be subject to the structural change problem and generate biased and less accurate forecasts. In this study, we propose more effective methods to forecast retailer product sales which take into account the problem of structural change. Based on data from a well-known US retailer, we show that our methods outperform conventional forecasting methods that ignore the possibility of such changes.
AB - Grocery retailers need accurate sales forecasts at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) level to effectively manage their inventory. Previous studies have proposed forecasting methods which incorporate the effect of various marketing activities including prices and promotions. However, their methods have overlooked that the effects of the marketing activities on product sales may change over time. Therefore, these methods may be subject to the structural change problem and generate biased and less accurate forecasts. In this study, we propose more effective methods to forecast retailer product sales which take into account the problem of structural change. Based on data from a well-known US retailer, we show that our methods outperform conventional forecasting methods that ignore the possibility of such changes.
KW - Analytics
KW - Forecasting
KW - OR in marketing
KW - Retailing
KW - Commerce
KW - Forecasting methods
KW - Grocery retailer
KW - Marketing activities
KW - Product sales
KW - Sales forecasts
KW - Stock keeping unit
KW - Sales
U2 - 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011
DO - 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.06.011
M3 - Journal article
VL - 279
SP - 459
EP - 470
JO - European Journal of Operational Research
JF - European Journal of Operational Research
SN - 0377-2217
IS - 2
ER -