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GLUE: twenty years on

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GLUE: twenty years on. / Beven, Keith; Binley, Andrew.
In: Hydrological Processes, Vol. 28, No. 24, 29.11.2014, p. 5897–5918.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/MagazineJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Beven, K & Binley, A 2014, 'GLUE: twenty years on', Hydrological Processes, vol. 28, no. 24, pp. 5897–5918. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10082

APA

Beven, K., & Binley, A. (2014). GLUE: twenty years on. Hydrological Processes, 28(24), 5897–5918. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10082

Vancouver

Beven K, Binley A. GLUE: twenty years on. Hydrological Processes. 2014 Nov 29;28(24):5897–5918. Epub 2013 Nov 5. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10082

Author

Beven, Keith ; Binley, Andrew. / GLUE : twenty years on. In: Hydrological Processes. 2014 ; Vol. 28, No. 24. pp. 5897–5918.

Bibtex

@article{763b2e68d48b4566a9cdbea40f4045dd,
title = "GLUE: twenty years on",
abstract = "This paper reviews the use of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in the 20 years since the paper by Beven and Binley in Hydrological Processes in (1992), which is now one of the most highly cited papers in hydrology.The original conception, the on-going controversy it has generated, the nature of different sources of uncertainty and the meaning of the GLUE prediction uncertainty bounds are discussed. The hydrological, rather than statistical, arguments about the nature of model and data errors and uncertainties that are the basis for GLUE are emphasized. The application of the Institute of Hydrologydistributed model to the Gwy catchment at Plynlimon presented in the original paper is revisited, using a larger sample of models, a wider range of likelihood evaluations and new visualization techniques. It is concluded that there are good reasons to reject this model for that data set. This is a positive result in a research environment in that it requires improved models or data to be made available. In practice, there may be ethical issues of using outputs from models for which there is evidence for model rejection in decision making. Finally, some suggestions for what is needed in the next 20 years are provided.",
keywords = "uncertainty estimation, epistemic error, rainfall–runoff models, equifinality, Plynlimon",
author = "Keith Beven and Andrew Binley",
year = "2014",
month = nov,
day = "29",
doi = "10.1002/hyp.10082",
language = "English",
volume = "28",
pages = "5897–5918",
journal = "Hydrological Processes",
issn = "0885-6087",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "24",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - GLUE

T2 - twenty years on

AU - Beven, Keith

AU - Binley, Andrew

PY - 2014/11/29

Y1 - 2014/11/29

N2 - This paper reviews the use of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in the 20 years since the paper by Beven and Binley in Hydrological Processes in (1992), which is now one of the most highly cited papers in hydrology.The original conception, the on-going controversy it has generated, the nature of different sources of uncertainty and the meaning of the GLUE prediction uncertainty bounds are discussed. The hydrological, rather than statistical, arguments about the nature of model and data errors and uncertainties that are the basis for GLUE are emphasized. The application of the Institute of Hydrologydistributed model to the Gwy catchment at Plynlimon presented in the original paper is revisited, using a larger sample of models, a wider range of likelihood evaluations and new visualization techniques. It is concluded that there are good reasons to reject this model for that data set. This is a positive result in a research environment in that it requires improved models or data to be made available. In practice, there may be ethical issues of using outputs from models for which there is evidence for model rejection in decision making. Finally, some suggestions for what is needed in the next 20 years are provided.

AB - This paper reviews the use of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology in the 20 years since the paper by Beven and Binley in Hydrological Processes in (1992), which is now one of the most highly cited papers in hydrology.The original conception, the on-going controversy it has generated, the nature of different sources of uncertainty and the meaning of the GLUE prediction uncertainty bounds are discussed. The hydrological, rather than statistical, arguments about the nature of model and data errors and uncertainties that are the basis for GLUE are emphasized. The application of the Institute of Hydrologydistributed model to the Gwy catchment at Plynlimon presented in the original paper is revisited, using a larger sample of models, a wider range of likelihood evaluations and new visualization techniques. It is concluded that there are good reasons to reject this model for that data set. This is a positive result in a research environment in that it requires improved models or data to be made available. In practice, there may be ethical issues of using outputs from models for which there is evidence for model rejection in decision making. Finally, some suggestions for what is needed in the next 20 years are provided.

KW - uncertainty estimation

KW - epistemic error

KW - rainfall–runoff models

KW - equifinality

KW - Plynlimon

U2 - 10.1002/hyp.10082

DO - 10.1002/hyp.10082

M3 - Journal article

VL - 28

SP - 5897

EP - 5918

JO - Hydrological Processes

JF - Hydrological Processes

SN - 0885-6087

IS - 24

ER -