Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > How will the semi-natural vegetation of the UK ...

Electronic data

  • Stevens_et_al_revised

    Rights statement: This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Environmental Pollution. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Environmental Pollution, 208, Part B, 2016 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2015.09.013

    Accepted author manuscript, 834 KB, PDF document

    Available under license: CC BY-NC-ND: Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License

Links

Text available via DOI:

View graph of relations

How will the semi-natural vegetation of the UK have changed by 2030 given likely changes in nitrogen deposition?

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published
Close
<mark>Journal publication date</mark>01/2016
<mark>Journal</mark>Environmental Pollution
Issue numberPart B
Volume208
Number of pages11
Pages (from-to)879-889
Publication statusPublished
Early online date4/10/15
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

Nitrogen deposition is known to have major impacts on contemporary ecosystems but few studies have addressed how these impacts will develop over coming decades. We consider likely changes to British semi-natural vegetation up to the year 2030 both qualitatively, based on knowledge of species responses from experimental and gradient studies, and quantitatively, based on modelling of species relationships in national monitoring data. We used historical N deposition trends and national predictions of changing deposition to calculate cumulative deposition from 1900 to 2030. Data from the Countryside Survey (1978, 1990 and 1998) was used to parameterise models relating cumulative N deposition to Ellenberg N which were then applied to expected future deposition trends. Changes to habitat suitability for key species of grassland, heathland and bog, and broadleaved woodland to 2030 were predicted using the MultiMOVE model. In UK woodlands by 2030 there is likely to be reduced occurrence of lichens, increased grass cover and a shift towards more nitrophilic vascular plant species. In grasslands we expect changing species composition with reduced occurrence of terricolous lichens and, at least in acid grasslands, reduced species richness. In heaths and bogs we project overall reductions in species richness with decreased occurrence of terricolous lichens and some bryophytes, reduced cover of dwarf shrubs and small increases in grasses. Our study clearly suggests that changes in vegetation due to nitrogen deposition are likely to continue through coming decades.

Bibliographic note

This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Environmental Pollution. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Environmental Pollution, 208, Part B, 2016 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2015.09.013