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Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: a multi-model study

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published

  • R. M. Doherty
  • O. Wild
  • D. T. Shindell
  • G. Zeng
  • I. A. MacKenzie
  • W. J. Collins
  • A. M. Fiore
  • D. S. Stevenson
  • F. J. Dentener
  • M. G. Schultz
  • P. Hess
  • R. G. Derwent
  • T. J. Keating
Journal publication date16/05/2013
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Journal number9
Volume118
Number of pages20
Pages3744-3763
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2=0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.

Bibliographic note

©2013. American Geophysical Union.

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