Rights statement: ©2013. American Geophysical Union
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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution
T2 - a multi-model study
AU - Doherty, R. M.
AU - Wild, O.
AU - Shindell, D. T.
AU - Zeng, G.
AU - MacKenzie, I. A.
AU - Collins, W. J.
AU - Fiore, A. M.
AU - Stevenson, D. S.
AU - Dentener, F. J.
AU - Schultz, M. G.
AU - Hess, P.
AU - Derwent, R. G.
AU - Keating, T. J.
N1 - ©2013. American Geophysical Union.
PY - 2013/5/16
Y1 - 2013/5/16
N2 - The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2=0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.
AB - The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2=0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.
KW - surface ozone
KW - source-receptor relationships
KW - SENSITIVITY
KW - CHEMISTRY MODEL
KW - AIR-QUALITY
KW - climate change
KW - TRANSPORT
KW - intercontinental transport
KW - ISOPRENE EMISSION
KW - UNITED-STATES
KW - PHOTOCHEMISTRY
KW - GLOBAL LIGHTNING DISTRIBUTIONS
KW - NORTH-AMERICA
KW - REACTIVE NITROGEN
U2 - 10.1002/jgrd.50266
DO - 10.1002/jgrd.50266
M3 - Journal article
VL - 118
SP - 3744
EP - 3763
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
SN - 2169-897X
IS - 9
ER -