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Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

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Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa. / Redding, D.W.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Cunningham, A.A. et al.
In: Nature Communications, Vol. 10, No. 1, 4531, 15.10.2019.

Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review

Harvard

Redding, DW, Atkinson, PM, Cunningham, AA, Lo Iacono, G, Moses, LM, Wood, JLN & Jones, KE 2019, 'Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa', Nature Communications, vol. 10, no. 1, 4531. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6

APA

Redding, D. W., Atkinson, P. M., Cunningham, A. A., Lo Iacono, G., Moses, L. M., Wood, J. L. N., & Jones, K. E. (2019). Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa. Nature Communications, 10(1), Article 4531. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6

Vancouver

Redding DW, Atkinson PM, Cunningham AA, Lo Iacono G, Moses LM, Wood JLN et al. Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa. Nature Communications. 2019 Oct 15;10(1):4531. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6

Author

Redding, D.W. ; Atkinson, Peter M. ; Cunningham, A.A. et al. / Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa. In: Nature Communications. 2019 ; Vol. 10, No. 1.

Bibtex

@article{08f39a42f73343eca3919d7b7f5664f1,
title = "Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa",
abstract = "Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases. {\textcopyright} 2019, The Author(s).",
keywords = "Ebola virus disease, environmental factor, epidemic, global change, health care, modeling, population growth, risk assessment, socioeconomic impact, trend analysis, Central Africa, Animalia, Ebola virus",
author = "D.W. Redding and Atkinson, {Peter M.} and A.A. Cunningham and {Lo Iacono}, G. and L.M. Moses and J.L.N. Wood and K.E. Jones",
year = "2019",
month = oct,
day = "15",
doi = "10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6",
language = "English",
volume = "10",
journal = "Nature Communications",
issn = "2041-1723",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa

AU - Redding, D.W.

AU - Atkinson, Peter M.

AU - Cunningham, A.A.

AU - Lo Iacono, G.

AU - Moses, L.M.

AU - Wood, J.L.N.

AU - Jones, K.E.

PY - 2019/10/15

Y1 - 2019/10/15

N2 - Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases. © 2019, The Author(s).

AB - Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases. © 2019, The Author(s).

KW - Ebola virus disease

KW - environmental factor

KW - epidemic

KW - global change

KW - health care

KW - modeling

KW - population growth

KW - risk assessment

KW - socioeconomic impact

KW - trend analysis

KW - Central Africa

KW - Animalia

KW - Ebola virus

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6

DO - 10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6

M3 - Journal article

VL - 10

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

SN - 2041-1723

IS - 1

M1 - 4531

ER -