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Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change

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Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change. / Bush, Alex; Mokany, Karel; Catullo, Renee; Hoffman, Ary; Kellermann, Vanessa; Sgro, Carla; McEvey, Shane; Ferrier, Simon.

In: Ecology Letters, Vol. 19, No. 12, 01.12.2016, p. 1468-1478.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Harvard

Bush, A, Mokany, K, Catullo, R, Hoffman, A, Kellermann, V, Sgro, C, McEvey, S & Ferrier, S 2016, 'Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change', Ecology Letters, vol. 19, no. 12, pp. 1468-1478. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12696

APA

Bush, A., Mokany, K., Catullo, R., Hoffman, A., Kellermann, V., Sgro, C., ... Ferrier, S. (2016). Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change. Ecology Letters, 19(12), 1468-1478. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12696

Vancouver

Bush A, Mokany K, Catullo R, Hoffman A, Kellermann V, Sgro C et al. Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change. Ecology Letters. 2016 Dec 1;19(12):1468-1478. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12696

Author

Bush, Alex ; Mokany, Karel ; Catullo, Renee ; Hoffman, Ary ; Kellermann, Vanessa ; Sgro, Carla ; McEvey, Shane ; Ferrier, Simon. / Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change. In: Ecology Letters. 2016 ; Vol. 19, No. 12. pp. 1468-1478.

Bibtex

@article{2f1822c517794698a884874c7be07c7c,
title = "Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change",
abstract = "Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33{\%} by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.",
keywords = "Drosophila, niche model, phenotypic plasticity, physiological tolerances, thermal tolerance",
author = "Alex Bush and Karel Mokany and Renee Catullo and Ary Hoffman and Vanessa Kellermann and Carla Sgro and Shane McEvey and Simon Ferrier",
year = "2016",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/ele.12696",
language = "English",
volume = "19",
pages = "1468--1478",
journal = "Ecology Letters",
issn = "1461-023X",
publisher = "Wiley",
number = "12",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change

AU - Bush, Alex

AU - Mokany, Karel

AU - Catullo, Renee

AU - Hoffman, Ary

AU - Kellermann, Vanessa

AU - Sgro, Carla

AU - McEvey, Shane

AU - Ferrier, Simon

PY - 2016/12/1

Y1 - 2016/12/1

N2 - Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.

AB - Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.

KW - Drosophila

KW - niche model

KW - phenotypic plasticity

KW - physiological tolerances

KW - thermal tolerance

U2 - 10.1111/ele.12696

DO - 10.1111/ele.12696

M3 - Journal article

VL - 19

SP - 1468

EP - 1478

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

SN - 1461-023X

IS - 12

ER -