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Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Inference for extreme values under threshold-based stopping rules
AU - Barlow, Anna
AU - Sherlock, Christopher
AU - Tawn, Jonathan
PY - 2020/8/1
Y1 - 2020/8/1
N2 - There is a propensity for an extreme value analyses to be conducted as a consequence of the occurrence of a large flooding event. This timing of the analysis introduces bias and poor coverage probabilities into the associated risk assessments and leads subsequently to inefficient flood protection schemes. We explore these problems through studying stochastic stopping criteria and propose new likelihood-based inferences that mitigate against these difficulties. Our methods are illustrated through the analysis of the river Lune, following it experiencing the UK's largest ever measured flow event in 2015. We show that without accounting for this stopping feature there would be substantial over-design in response to the event.
AB - There is a propensity for an extreme value analyses to be conducted as a consequence of the occurrence of a large flooding event. This timing of the analysis introduces bias and poor coverage probabilities into the associated risk assessments and leads subsequently to inefficient flood protection schemes. We explore these problems through studying stochastic stopping criteria and propose new likelihood-based inferences that mitigate against these difficulties. Our methods are illustrated through the analysis of the river Lune, following it experiencing the UK's largest ever measured flow event in 2015. We show that without accounting for this stopping feature there would be substantial over-design in response to the event.
U2 - 10.1111/rssc.12420
DO - 10.1111/rssc.12420
M3 - Journal article
VL - 69
SP - 765
EP - 789
JO - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)
JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics)
SN - 0035-9254
IS - 4
ER -