12,000

We have over 12,000 students, from over 100 countries, within one of the safest campuses in the UK

93%

93% of Lancaster students go into work or further study within six months of graduating

Home > Research > Publications & Outputs > Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratosph...
View graph of relations

« Back

Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Published

  • V. Eyring
  • I Cionni
  • J Arblaster
  • J Sedlacek
  • Judith Perlwitz
  • Slimane Bekki
  • D. Bergmann
  • Philip Cameron-Smith
  • William J. Collins
  • G. Faluvegi
  • K. -D. Gottschaldt
  • L. W. Horowitz
  • Doug Kinnison
  • Jean-Francois Lamarque
  • D.R. Marsh
  • D. Saint-Martin
  • Drew T. Shindell
  • K. Sudo
  • Sophie Szopa
  • S Watanabe
Journal publication date27/05/2013
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Journal number10
Volume118
Number of pages31
Pages5029-5060
Original languageEnglish

Abstract

[1] Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960–2005) and future (2006–2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

Bibliographic note

©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Related activities