Rights statement: ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Final published version, 5.76 MB, PDF document
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
Research output: Contribution to Journal/Magazine › Journal article › peer-review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations
AU - Eyring, V.
AU - Cionni, I
AU - Arblaster, J
AU - Sedlacek, J
AU - Perlwitz, Judith
AU - Young, Paul
AU - Bekki, Slimane
AU - Bergmann, D.
AU - Cameron-Smith, Philip
AU - Collins, William J.
AU - Faluvegi, G.
AU - Gottschaldt, K. -D.
AU - Horowitz, L. W.
AU - Kinnison, Doug
AU - Lamarque, Jean-Francois
AU - Marsh, D.R.
AU - Saint-Martin, D.
AU - Shindell, Drew T.
AU - Sudo, K.
AU - Szopa, Sophie
AU - Watanabe, S
N1 - ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
PY - 2013/5/27
Y1 - 2013/5/27
N2 - [1] Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960–2005) and future (2006–2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.
AB - [1] Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960–2005) and future (2006–2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.
KW - CMIP5
KW - stratospheric ozone
KW - stratospheric temperature trends
KW - zonal wind changes
KW - tropospheric ozone
KW - chemistry-climate coupling
U2 - 10.1002/jgrd.50316
DO - 10.1002/jgrd.50316
M3 - Journal article
VL - 118
SP - 5029
EP - 5060
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
SN - 0747-7309
IS - 10
ER -